FAILURE 2.0 Toyota Scrambling to Reboot EVs

Short answer: Toyota a few years back is GM in the early 1970s, at least in terms of complacency.  Unlike GM back then, Toyota did not stay complacent. 

I have never understood why Toyota went with hydrogen when EVs are the future in the first place.  Yes, Toyota is playing catch up.  Will they succeed in the EV race against Tesla and the other legacy automakers competing in the EV space? Who knows?  Failure is still the greatest teacher, and it sounds like Toyota is listening (maybe).

Personally, I think the VERY long term solution will be hydrogen but I don't think we are anywhere close to that yet. It is, by far, the most sustainable energy source. They just need to figure out all of the...well...everything still. 

4 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

Personally, I think the VERY long term solution will be hydrogen but I don't think we are anywhere close to that yet. It is, by far, the most sustainable energy source. They just need to figure out all of the...well...everything still. 

I will agree in a limited scope on Hydrogen and this is why,

Energy, still takes 10 times more energy to produce a gallon of Hydrogen making it an unsustainable energy source especially for small form factor like autos.

The next issue is as follows, molecular size of H2. It is the smallest possible stable molecule, hence the ability for it to escape through even the smallest of tiniest gaps in storage devices and this does not take into account the natural leakage that over time leak out through all the various materials used to store it and transport it to be burnt in an engine. The higher the pressure, the more that leaks out.

The next problem is the cost of the one metal that is able to keep most of the hydrogen where it needs to be and efficiently use hydrogen as a fuel source. Platinum, this is why the Toyota, Honda and GM Hydrogen autos were all lease as the amount of platinum in those auto's made them more expensive than what they had to be sold at.

Another issue is due to the explosive nature on top of leakage, transporting Hydrogen in bulk is not feasible, as to why the few Hydrogen fueling stations had big expensive equipment on site to make the hydrogen as it was needed to fuel.

Now that we have covered why Hydrogen autos will not happen, let's take a look at where it MIGHT work.

• Trains
• Semi class 8 trucks
• Planes

Why these three items one might ask, easy they are the least fuel-efficient engines, but they move massive amount of people and especially products and usually it is from consistent ports to warehouses, major distribution points. As such, you could have trains and long-distance Class 8 trucks that could be electric propelled, but Hydrogen generator electricity supplied.

Planes is another place due to how Hydrogen helps with lifting the heavy plane and freight and having an engine that would burn Hydrogen producing water and oxygen out the exhaust up high would actually help the climate and seed clouds with water vapor.

Boeing, Lockheed, Airbus, BAE are all working on planes with Hydrogen engines.

This is actually a well-done page on Hydrogen powered planes. Hydrogen-powered aircraft - Wikipedia

Trains are in the news too. Coradia iLint: The world's first hydrogen passenger trains | CNN Travel

Since 2017, we have had much research done into Hydrogen powered Class 8 trucks. Still, none are in mass production as they are still testing in limited use cases.

Kenworth To Build Class 8 Hydrogen Fuel Cell and CNG-Electric Hybrid Drayage Trucks - Trucks.com

Cummins, Navistar to develop hydrogen fuel cell-powered Class 8 truck (fleetequipmentmag.com)

Toyota's fuel cell-powered Class 8 truck is going into service in LA - CNET

Hyzon Class 8 Freightliner | Zero Emission, Hydrogen-Powered Vehicle - Hyzon Motors |

SAE actually has defined specs now on Hydrogen Class 8 Trucks.

Hydrogen technology commercial trucks (sae.org)

Hope you can understand my point on why hydrogen autos for personal use will never happen, but in commercial space it has a place.

All of those reasons are why I said it is a VERY long-term solution and there are so many things that need to be sorted out before it can efficiently be used. 

I never said it would be feasible in the next 5, 10, or 20 years. But, I still believe it will be the very long-term solution. 

@ccap41 interesting thinking on this about Toyota, this fits Mercedes very well as their electric platform they are using is a 400V, not the 800 V platform that others are using and no Mega Casting as it was designed to be built on the same assembly lines as the ICE autos.

I think Mercedes will have a hard time once they sell to the badge snobs in getting conquest sales when they are more expensive for nothing more special than their badge. 

I do think Toyota is listening and watching and realizes that they have to do a major revolution change, not an evolution change.

Mercedes, I am not so sure is paying attention like Toyota and while they talk about their next generation EV platform out in 2025, I wonder if it will take into account Mega Casting and efficiency or lean manufacturing. The unions have hit hard about not losing jobs. Yet Tesla makes their EVs with far less hands than just about anyone right now.

20 minutes ago, David said:

Mercedes, I am not so sure is paying attention like Toyota and while they talk about their next generation EV platform out in 2025, I wonder if it will take into account Mega Casting and efficiency or lean manufacturing. The unions have hit hard about not losing jobs. Yet Tesla makes their EVs with far less hands than just about anyone right now.

"Rakoto, Senior Engagement Manager – Global Automotive Practice Leader, and Ling, Senior Analyst – Automotive Knowledge Manager, note that Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, and Volkswagen are among the OEMs following Tesla’s lead in the use of mega-castings, in spite of the industry’s limited experience with the technology."

https://www.repairerdrivennews.com/2022/06/06/ducker-oems-show-interest-in-mega-castings-despite-many-doubts-about-their-performance/

After reading a bit about mega castings, the worry is if there is even the slightest damage, the vehicle is a total loss. It sounds like companies are going to get exactly what they want and that's disposable vehicles. 

4 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

"Rakoto, Senior Engagement Manager – Global Automotive Practice Leader, and Ling, Senior Analyst – Automotive Knowledge Manager, note that Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, and Volkswagen are among the OEMs following Tesla’s lead in the use of mega-castings, in spite of the industry’s limited experience with the technology."

https://www.repairerdrivennews.com/2022/06/06/ducker-oems-show-interest-in-mega-castings-despite-many-doubts-about-their-performance/

After reading a bit about mega castings, the worry is if there is even the slightest damage, the vehicle is a total loss. It sounds like companies are going to get exactly what they want and that's disposable vehicles. 

Two ways to look at this, 

First is higher insurance as your right, more common than not, an auto will be scrapped if in an accident beyond minor visual damage.

Flip side is that if they are built like Tesla, 3 Mega Castings, if the damage is just to the front or back, it might make a bigger salvage business as people who like projects I can see buying up, replacing the core Mega Cast section and rebuild the auto to get it back to functional.

Interesting times for sure and I am glad to hear that the Germans are paying attention to Tesla, but to what extent as I would have expected Mercedes to then have mega casting by default at 800 V when they started their EQ portfolio rather than now having to upgrade.

Interesting times for sure.

Mega Casting is a great idea because fewer parts make it easier and cheaper to manufacture.  Repairs may well be an issue though.

Assuming Tesla stays #1 in EVs (Elon Musk aside), who will be #2 or #3 in 2030 in the EV game?  Who will sell more, and who will get higher ATPs on their EVs?

4 hours ago, David said:

Two ways to look at this, 

First is higher insurance as your right, more common than not, an auto will be scrapped if in an accident beyond minor visual damage.

Flip side is that if they are built like Tesla, 3 Mega Castings, if the damage is just to the front or back, it might make a bigger salvage business as people who like projects I can see buying up, replacing the core Mega Cast section and rebuild the auto to get it back to functional.

Interesting times for sure and I am glad to hear that the Germans are paying attention to Tesla, but to what extent as I would have expected Mercedes to then have mega casting by default at 800 V when they started their EQ portfolio rather than now having to upgrade.

Interesting times for sure.

I work as an estimator for a car insurance company and I think for sure any of these mega cast cars will be totaled if wrecked and the cast is damaged.  Although that isn’t too different from if frame rails, subframe or inner quarter panels are damaged now most of the time the car is totaled because any of those jobs gets into 50+ hour repairs plus the cost of the parts and materials and headlights are really expensive now.  
 

On the salvage side, Mercedes get the best salvage return, the newer stuff easily over 50% their value and even at 10+ years old over 40%.  Toyotas usually get over 40% unless they are old and EV’s are usually in the 40% range while an average car is like 20%.

The Toyota Corolla is the #1 selling vehicle in the world and the Toyota RAV4 is #2.  Each do over 1 million sales per year.   All Toyota has to do is build cars that look the same with the same interior as the Corolla and RAV4 on an EV platform.  That shouldn’t be too hard, they already know what buyers want.  You don’t need to experiment with funky designs and gloss black body cladding.

And Toyota knows manufacturing probably better than anyone, they can figure out EVs and ICE running on the same line, others do it.

16 hours ago, smk4565 said:

The Toyota Corolla is the #1 selling vehicle in the world and the Toyota RAV4 is #2.  Each do over 1 million sales per year.   All Toyota has to do is build cars that look the same with the same interior as the Corolla and RAV4 on an EV platform.  That shouldn’t be too hard, they already know what buyers want.  You don’t need to experiment with funky designs and gloss black body cladding.

And Toyota knows manufacturing probably better than anyone, they can figure out EVs and ICE running on the same line, others do it.

Normally I would have to agree with you if EVs was not in the equation as Toyota has perfected the Lean Manufacturing process that America was late to embrace as well as Europe.

Yet as the whole reason for this post was that Toyota is having to reboot. The whole honor do not lose face is what has led Toyota to this mess right now as they embraced Hydrogen which will never happen, I believe in the personal auto space.

The rubber stamp upper management failed the Executives in not pointing out what Tesla was doing now rather than basing it on a decade old interaction with Tesla. This misstep is not a kiss of death, but this can very well lead a company to fall from the top #1 space as they play catch up and the executives are now battling between the oldest ones that feel what they have is still the way to go and the younger ones that have setup this group that is looking at changing the way things are done.

If Toyota takes 3 to 5 years to get a Mega Cast pure EV platform in place, GM, Kia, Hyundia, Ford and VW will kill them as they all have Mega Cast platforms up and running now as they move to get multiple products out by 2025. We are at the end of 2022 and they are supposed to release a report at the start of 2023, approvals and politics inside Toyota will take place and at the earliest, I can see them start on the new Mega Cast platform starting late 2023 or early 2024, so if just 3 years, that puts Toyota on track for a profitable Mega cast platform in production in 2027, 2 years behind many others that will have multiple products out.

8 hours ago, David said:

Normally I would have to agree with you if EVs was not in the equation as Toyota has perfected the Lean Manufacturing process that America was late to embrace as well as Europe.

Yet as the whole reason for this post was that Toyota is having to reboot. The whole honor do not lose face is what has led Toyota to this mess right now as they embraced Hydrogen which will never happen, I believe in the personal auto space.

The rubber stamp upper management failed the Executives in not pointing out what Tesla was doing now rather than basing it on a decade old interaction with Tesla. This misstep is not a kiss of death, but this can very well lead a company to fall from the top #1 space as they play catch up and the executives are now battling between the oldest ones that feel what they have is still the way to go and the younger ones that have setup this group that is looking at changing the way things are done.

If Toyota takes 3 to 5 years to get a Mega Cast pure EV platform in place, GM, Kia, Hyundia, Ford and VW will kill them as they all have Mega Cast platforms up and running now as they move to get multiple products out by 2025. We are at the end of 2022 and they are supposed to release a report at the start of 2023, approvals and politics inside Toyota will take place and at the earliest, I can see them start on the new Mega Cast platform starting late 2023 or early 2024, so if just 3 years, that puts Toyota on track for a profitable Mega cast platform in production in 2027, 2 years behind many others that will have multiple products out.

I think it depends on what Toyota’s production capacity is in 5 years.  I think we need another upgrade in battery life and cost for EV to really take over. It might not be until 2030 that EV market share hits 50%.  So Toyota has time if they scale huge and have everything in place then.

We can say GM has products coming but it’s all low volume.  5,000 Sierra electric trucks at $105,000 isn’t a business model for them.  GM needs to be making 500,000 electric pick ups, 500,000 electric Equinox globally, maybe more.  
 

Only Tesla has the scale in place,  they will sell over a million Model Y next year, Ford will be lucky to hit 50,000 Mach-E’s.  If Toyota shows up in 3-5 years with 3-5 million EV per year capacity they could stop Ford and GM just as they have the past 30 years.

30 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

I think it depends on what Toyota’s production capacity is in 5 years.  I think we need another upgrade in battery life and cost for EV to really take over. It might not be until 2030 that EV market share hits 50%.  So Toyota has time if they scale huge and have everything in place then.

We can say GM has products coming but it’s all low volume.  5,000 Sierra electric trucks at $105,000 isn’t a business model for them.  GM needs to be making 500,000 electric pick ups, 500,000 electric Equinox globally, maybe more.  
 

Only Tesla has the scale in place,  they will sell over a million Model Y next year, Ford will be lucky to hit 50,000 Mach-E’s.  If Toyota shows up in 3-5 years with 3-5 million EV per year capacity they could stop Ford and GM just as they have the past 30 years.

Agree to disagree then as Europe has set a line in the sand for EV sales as has China. Due to the parts shortages and inflation due to idiot decisions in DC in the past decade, we have people who struggle and people who do not. 

Humanity is nothing but predictable in certain ways and autos have become an appliance for most who do not want to deal with oil, gas, maintenance, etc. As such, there is a reason EVs have taken off in bigger numbers where a larger assortment of options is available. I believe this will happen here too once the planned models come out in the next couple of years.

Batteries will always get upgraded, same with software and electric motors. The ability to have a proper platform in place to grow off of is what will hold Toyota back compared to GM. GM is now with Mega Casting and a pure 800V platform. Toyota does not have this and is looking at 3 to 5 years to get there. That is a big deficit to overcome. 

Tesla MIGHT still be a leader in a couple years, but I would not bet on it as long as they have idiot Musk doing the stupid things he is doing. CEO Leadership is missing at Tesla IMHO compared to GM. Toyota has money now but could end up hurting like other auto companies due to stupid decisions and the whole lose face thing.

You know GM is not looking at selling 5,000 trucks only nor is Ford. They are both looking at selling millions and are aiming to make a full business of EVs for all product size in Trucks, SUVs and Cars. Market will dictate for sure.

18 hours ago, David said:

Agree to disagree then as Europe has set a line in the sand for EV sales as has China. Due to the parts shortages and inflation due to idiot decisions in DC in the past decade, we have people who struggle and people who do not. 

Humanity is nothing but predictable in certain ways and autos have become an appliance for most who do not want to deal with oil, gas, maintenance, etc. As such, there is a reason EVs have taken off in bigger numbers where a larger assortment of options is available. I believe this will happen here too once the planned models come out in the next couple of years.

Batteries will always get upgraded, same with software and electric motors. The ability to have a proper platform in place to grow off of is what will hold Toyota back compared to GM. GM is now with Mega Casting and a pure 800V platform. Toyota does not have this and is looking at 3 to 5 years to get there. That is a big deficit to overcome. 

Tesla MIGHT still be a leader in a couple years, but I would not bet on it as long as they have idiot Musk doing the stupid things he is doing. CEO Leadership is missing at Tesla IMHO compared to GM. Toyota has money now but could end up hurting like other auto companies due to stupid decisions and the whole lose face thing.

You know GM is not looking at selling 5,000 trucks only nor is Ford. They are both looking at selling millions and are aiming to make a full business of EVs for all product size in Trucks, SUVs and Cars. Market will dictate for sure.

Toyota has more cash on hand than the value of GM as a company, they have the money to get supply chains, battery production, factory upgrades, etc all in place and launch a massive EV production within 5 years.  It might take Ford and GM 5 more years to get to that volume anyway.  We are still almost 1 year away from Blaze and Equinox EV going on sale, 9 months or so for Silverado EV and all those GM might only build 5-10,000 each next year.  So not until 2024 will they really be up and running and who knows what that pace is.  If GM or Ford sell over a million EV's in the calendar year 2024 in the USA I'd be surprised.  

There is still a price problem when the typical small crossover starts at $27k and $33k is the average sale price for that segment.  But a Mach-E, Ariya, id4, bz4x, etc are low $40s starting and like $50k average.  Tax credit (if you qualify) fuel and maintenance savings, yes I get all that.  But the majority of the car buying market can't afford an EV, or if you can, you are comparing a Genesis GV70 or maybe even a GV80 to a Hyundai Ioniq 5 for similar money.  You can buy a Lexus RX for the same price as a smaller, bz4x.   A Kia EV6 awd starts at $51,400, a Cadillac XT5 with awd is larger and about $5k cheaper, and it's a Cadillac not a Kia.  Prices have to get in line for the consumer demand to be there.

Tesla has the best CEO in the auto industry.   Most legacy OEM's are flat in revenue over the past 10 years, GM actually had less revenue in 2021 than they did 10 years ago.  If you factor in inflation a lot of these companies aren't growing, Tesla is growing every year.

Sometimes I just shake my head at the non-sense. 

As of 2/2022

Source:https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-companies-stockpile-1-trillion-cash-investors-want-it/

But yeah, Elon, Elon, Elon.

1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

Toyota has more cash on hand than the value of GM as a company, they have the money to get supply chains, battery production, factory upgrades, etc all in place and launch a massive EV production within 5 years.  It might take Ford and GM 5 more years to get to that volume anyway.  We are still almost 1 year away from Blaze and Equinox EV going on sale, 9 months or so for Silverado EV and all those GM might only build 5-10,000 each next year.  So not until 2024 will they really be up and running and who knows what that pace is.  If GM or Ford sell over a million EV's in the calendar year 2024 in the USA I'd be surprised.  

There is still a price problem when the typical small crossover starts at $27k and $33k is the average sale price for that segment.  But a Mach-E, Ariya, id4, bz4x, etc are low $40s starting and like $50k average.  Tax credit (if you qualify) fuel and maintenance savings, yes I get all that.  But the majority of the car buying market can't afford an EV, or if you can, you are comparing a Genesis GV70 or maybe even a GV80 to a Hyundai Ioniq 5 for similar money.  You can buy a Lexus RX for the same price as a smaller, bz4x.   A Kia EV6 awd starts at $51,400, a Cadillac XT5 with awd is larger and about $5k cheaper, and it's a Cadillac not a Kia.  Prices have to get in line for the consumer demand to be there.

Tesla has the best CEO in the auto industry.   Most legacy OEM's are flat in revenue over the past 10 years, GM actually had less revenue in 2021 than they did 10 years ago.  If you factor in inflation a lot of these companies aren't growing, Tesla is growing every year.

Yes Toyota has more cash, but they also burned through 12%+ in one year showing money does not mean forever. At that burn rate, they will reduce cash on hand by half in 3 years and be on par with GM in 5 years when they are finally on an 800V mega Cast platform and by 2025 GM has planned to be producing 1 million plus EVs a year here in the US and the same in China. 

Compared to GM

Every interview shows that GM is very serious about becoming #1 in Luxury and EV Sales.

GM bets on electric Equinox to kick-start 'massive adoption' of EVs (cnbc.com)

Ford is worth $53 billion, GM is worth $54 billion, Toyota is worth $225 billion, Tesla is worth $716 billion.   I'd say Elon is the best CEO if the CEO's job is to build shareholder value.  Toyota historically has kept about $50-60 billion in cash, google says it is over $70 billion this year.  But my point is Toyota has plenty of cash and manufacturing know how that they can scale up an operation.  I wouldn't count them out because they are still in a position of strength, still the largest car company in the world, they operate in every market. 

I think the bz4x is a flop, but eventually they'll do electric Tundra, Tacoma, Hilux, Rav4, Prius EV, etc, and they'll be fine.  Unless they don't do any of that, but they aren't that stupid.

You guys and your pissing matches over something that is 100% irrelevant to you or whatever argument you're trying to make. 

"X company is great because they have CASH!"

"Look at my company and their cash!!"

3 minutes ago, David said:

Yes Toyota has more cash, but they also burned through 12%+ in one year showing money does not mean forever. At that burn rate, they will reduce cash on hand by half in 3 years and be on par with GM in 5 years when they are finally on an 800V mega Cast platform and by 2025 GM has planned to be producing 1 million plus EVs a year here in the US and the same in China. 

Compared to GM

Every interview shows that GM is very serious about becoming #1 in Luxury and EV Sales.

GM bets on electric Equinox to kick-start 'massive adoption' of EVs (cnbc.com)

I'd rather have $50-75 billion than $28-29 billion.  

And I get what GM is saying, I think their strategy is spot on, take existing models and make them EV, make them look conventional, and at a price that makes sense.  But the Silverado, Sierra, Equinox, Blazer are all almost a year away from production still, and won't really see full production until 2024.  They could easily pull a bait and switch like the F150 Lightning that "starts under $40,000" but they only made top trims in 2022, then the 2023 base price is $51,974.   Just like the $35,000 Tesla Model 3 that never happened.  I agree with the strategy, I am waiting to see if they can deliver on the prices they are promising and the scale they say.    Like will they have a dozen Equinox EV's on dealer lots in the end of 2023 so you can go in and buy one, or will it be the place an order and get it in 5 months BS.  

53 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

You guys and your pissing matches over something that is 100% irrelevant to you or whatever argument you're trying to make. 

"X company is great because they have CASH!"

"Look at my company and their cash!!"

Looks at another thread and two pages of pissing matches over the use of a pick up (and subsequent irrelevancy) and thinks to himself...

So now GM says they will produce 400,000 EV, across 2022, 2023 and first half of 2024.  With 70,000 Bolts next year being the volume leader.  
 

That’s not enough volume, and that’s why this is still all up for grabs.  If people want EV’s and you can’t meet demand customers will go elsewhere.  This is more of a race  to build capacity rather than build the best car.

And this is no different than the 1910’s when most cars were hand built low volume and then Ford found a way to make a million Model T’s a year.  They won because they had the most capacity, not because the Model T was a great car.

2 hours ago, smk4565 said:

That’s not enough volume, and that’s why this is still all up for grabs.  If people want EV’s and you can’t meet demand customers will go elsewhere.  This is more of a race  to build capacity rather than build the best car.

The last part shows why you are wrong. Somehow it never occurred to you that building the best quality EV was a better way to do business than selling in bulk right off the bat. Last I checked, it took Tesla almost a decade to manufacture at levels you see today and they STILL haven't gotten the quality down. Stop asking everyone else to do something else just because "that's enough volume" barely two years into the EV realm.

2 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

The last part shows why you are wrong. Somehow it never occurred to you that building the best quality EV was a better way to do business than selling in bulk right off the bat. Last I checked, it took Tesla almost a decade to manufacture at levels you see today and they STILL haven't gotten the quality down. Stop asking everyone else to do something else just because "that's enough volume" barely two years into the EV realm.

But Tesla even with build quality issues and what are relatively high prices for their cars are still selling at an incredible rate.  The Model Y is on pace to be the number 1 selling vehicle in the world next year.

I don’t think the Model Y by any means is the best car or best value, but it’s the Model T of the EV car market.

The Equinox could be the best EV ever and it won’t matter if they can only make 40,000 per year.

5 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

But Tesla even with build quality issues and what are relatively high prices for their cars are still selling at an incredible rate.  The Model Y is on pace to be the number 1 selling vehicle in the world next year.

Congrats on 100% missing the point there. 

Hydrogen aint never happenin'

Not now.

Not in the future.

The video I just listened to that explains the waht is what on hydrogen spells a very grim look about hydrogen storage, hydrogen efficiency and the elephant in the room....the possible boom. A possible boom and aftermath wasnt even addressed in the video but it was hinted at when talking about storing it very reinforced containers and in liquid form in the Bimmer 7 Series releasing hydrogen after the car maybe left in place for 17 hours. 

Only good thing about any of that is that what everybody LOVES to talk about hydrogen. The by-product of using hydrogen as a fuel source is H2O.  

Oh...BTW, @ccap41.

The dude says that the average Joe Blow likes to have his vehicle travel 300 miles before refueling...

I aint trying to convince you to change your mind...

I just like to pinpoint how shyte your opinion you hold is when you say that renting EVs today from Hertz is actually a hassle as compared to an ICE car today...

Its not.  

300 miles is what ICE cars do today.  Its a standard that when engineers do their cars, they calculate the MPGs with the engine and power and weight of the vehicle and engineer the appropriate gasoline tank to achieve 300 miles.

300 mile range is the holy grail and EVs TODAY pretty much achieve that...

If you are staying at a hotel...  working or on vacation...

https://electriccitycorp.com/hotels-with-ev-charging/

But that aint your thang...discussing with inteliigence...

SEMANTIC driven bullshyte is your thang. Trolling...

Not changin' your mind.  Just proving you gots no argument.  You could continue on your path of trolling, I will continue on my path of dead ending your trolling. 

On 10/29/2022 at 12:54 PM, smk4565 said:

But Tesla even with build quality issues and what are relatively high prices for their cars are still selling at an incredible rate.  The Model Y is on pace to be the number 1 selling vehicle in the world next year.

I don’t think the Model Y by any means is the best car or best value, but it’s the Model T of the EV car market.

The Equinox could be the best EV ever and it won’t matter if they can only make 40,000 per year.

Yet Tesla is already having to discount as sales have dropped off the cliff and they are now into pretty fast delivery times.

These are the Tesla wait times for every model | Tom's Guide (tomsguide.com)

Want a Model Y or 3, depending on the choices you pick in building your EV, you can get it from a week later to sometime in December. Clearly having discounts, bringing back the Tesla Loyalty Ownership program, Tesla is no long the EV auto to wait for as better options are hitting the market.

You actually have to wait if you want a Kia or Hyundai EV. Imagin that.

On 10/29/2022 at 3:04 PM, oldshurst442 said:

I just like to pinpoint how shyte your opinion you hold is when you say that renting EVs today from Hertz is actually a hassle as compared to an ICE car today...

You can continue to bring this up on a weekly basis but you will not change my opinion that in 2023, it will not be more convenient for the renter to rent an EV over an ICE vehicle. 

On 10/29/2022 at 3:04 PM, oldshurst442 said:

I will continue on my path of dead ending your trolling. 

14 hours ago, David said:

You actually have to wait if you want a Kia or Hyundai EV. Imagin that.

Is that not due to production differences? There's no way Kia/Hyundai are up to a production capacity for their EVs like Tesla is. 

On 10/28/2022 at 4:39 PM, surreal1272 said:

Looks at another thread and two pages of pissing matches over the use of a pick up (and subsequent irrelevancy) and thinks to himself...

If you actually read that other thread, you'd realize I was asking "why?" What makes a truck no longer a truck and now a lifestyle vehicle. I doubt you've ever heard somebody refer to a 1500 Sierra Denali as a lifestyle truck, right? 

1 hour ago, ccap41 said:

You can continue to bring this up on a weekly basis but you will not change my opinion that in 2023, it will not be more convenient for the renter to rent an EV over an ICE vehicle. 

Is that not due to production differences? There's no way Kia/Hyundai are up to a production capacity for their EVs like Tesla is. 

Yes, they have for this year maxed out capacity, increasing capacity like all auto makers are for next year. January shutdown will allow them to make some assembly line changes and get other things ready for a doubling of production. 

Good news for the U.S. as Kia and Hyundai also next year move production of their EVs to the U.S.

1 hour ago, ccap41 said:

If you actually read that other thread, you'd realize I was asking "why?" What makes a truck no longer a truck and now a lifestyle vehicle. I doubt you've ever heard somebody refer to a 1500 Sierra Denali as a lifestyle truck, right? 

I understand your work truck, truck thinking, but due to Rivian being a smart marketing company, they hit the term Lifestyle truck and now when you look at various advertising forms, that is a very popular term for all trucks that are not actually bought and used by a commercial company in the work field. 

Cost, Options and especially now the woman who are buying more trucks than guys, Lifestyle truck is the modern marketing term now.

I stand by my thinking that a Denali, AT4, etc. trims are far more a lifestyle choice by the buyers than a truck to be a truck, used as a commercial truck in a dirty muddy work site truck.

20 minutes ago, David said:

Yes, they have for this year maxed out capacity, increasing capacity like all auto makers are for next year. January shutdown will allow them to make some assembly line changes and get other things ready for a doubling of production. 

Good news for the U.S. as Kia and Hyundai also next year move production of their EVs to the U.S.

Yep, that's pretty much what I would have expected. I couldn't imagine that'd be at maximum capacity per their end goals of production in the first model year of an EV. They still needed to "test the waters" before spending too much on production without the demand. It's only smart to start with lower production and ramp up via demand. 

1 hour ago, ccap41 said:

You can continue to bring this up on a weekly basis but you will not change my opinion that in 2023, it will not be more convenient for the renter to rent an EV over an ICE vehicle. 

Im not tryin' to convince you.  Just pointin' out that whatever you are doin' is not correct.  

And it is JUST as convenient to rent an EV in 2023 than an ICE, perhaps MORE so, BECAUSE the hotel has a charger ready available to you to use.  Just as somebody has a charger at home to use, same principle here.  Vacationer goes back to hotel to juice up and have 300 mile range again in the mornin'. 

Just now, oldshurst442 said:

And it is JUST as convenient to rent an EV in 2023 than an ICE, perhaps MORE so, BECAUSE the hotel has a charger ready available to you to use.  Just as somebody has a charger at home to use, same principle here.  Vacationer goes back to hotel to juice up and have 300 mile range again in the mornin'. 

I just hope there aren't more than two EV renters at said hotel. I'm sure they're out there but I've yet to see the free chargers at hotels have more than two chargers available. 

Keep at your trolling, brah.  

You do you. 

2 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

I just hope there aren't more than two EV renters at said hotel. I'm sure they're out there but I've yet to see the free chargers at hotels have more than two chargers available. 

2 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

You do you.

Done deal! 

46 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

I just hope there aren't more than two EV renters at said hotel. I'm sure they're out there but I've yet to see the free chargers at hotels have more than two chargers available. 

I find plenty of chargers at hotels, most seem to have 4 to 6 chargers. I know for a fact that the Best Western Hill Top Hotel in Redding California, my halfway point to visiting family in the greater LA area has 4 chargers. Seems to always be one available for charging.

2 minutes ago, David said:

I find plenty of chargers at hotels, most seem to have 4 to 6 chargers. I know for a fact that the Best Western Hill Top Hotel in Redding California, my halfway point to visiting family in the greater LA area has 4 chargers. Seems to always be one available for charging.

What's funny is both pictures show only two chargers... 

Yes, they're available now because there aren't a bunch of EVs on the roads. Once they're "everywhere" and in rental fleets, 2-4 chargers won't be anything, especially because they're slow chargers. 

According to the Feds, there are 14 Level 2 / Fast DC charging stations in Redding. 

Charged Future website of public charging stations show that 3 of these stations are high power or DC fast charging stations.

This to me is no different than having to search out a gas station. The only difference is the longer time to charge up, but as I have said before, you could easily plan around going to a place, plugging in for Charging and then go to do your activity while the auto charges.

Easy Peasy!

6 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

What's funny is both pictures show only two chargers... 

Yes, they're available now because there aren't a bunch of EVs on the roads. Once they're "everywhere" and in rental fleets, 2-4 chargers won't be anything, especially because they're slow chargers. 

True, one could always overwhelm the existing chargers, but then that is the point of all new things, they grow and get more plentiful. Especially since by 2025 even the OEMs and yes this includes Tesla are expecting to start moving to solid state, so I really do not see this as an issue.

10 minutes ago, David said:

True, one could always overwhelm the existing chargers, but then that is the point of all new things, they grow and get more plentiful. Especially since by 2025 even the OEMs and yes this includes Tesla are expecting to start moving to solid state, so I really do not see this as an issue.

Oh I agree that by 2025-2030 it won't be an issue. My whole argument was that when these rental EVs first become available in early 2023, it still isn't as convenient as filling a gas tank up. 

22 hours ago, David said:

Yet Tesla is already having to discount as sales have dropped off the cliff and they are now into pretty fast delivery times.

These are the Tesla wait times for every model | Tom's Guide (tomsguide.com)

Want a Model Y or 3, depending on the choices you pick in building your EV, you can get it from a week later to sometime in December. Clearly having discounts, bringing back the Tesla Loyalty Ownership program, Tesla is no long the EV auto to wait for as better options are hitting the market.

You actually have to wait if you want a Kia or Hyundai EV. Imagin that.

There might be better options, but Tesla is the only one with any production scale.  You have to wait for a Hyundai or Kia because they can only make like 50,000 a year globally.   They should be making 500,000 a year, but they can't.  So all these car companies keep advertising EV's and getting people interested, then they have no supply, so people just go buy a Tesla.

8 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

There might be better options, but Tesla is the only one with any production scale.  You have to wait for a Hyundai or Kia because they can only make like 50,000 a year globally.   They should be making 500,000 a year, but they can't.  So all these car companies keep advertising EV's and getting people interested, then they have no supply, so people just go buy a Tesla.

Wrong, Tesla is not just the default everyone is buying, the discounts and quick delivery is proof of that now.

Like all new Autos, there is a ramp up period and you know this that they cannot just turn a handle and go from 50,000 to 500,000 a year.

1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

There might be better options, but Tesla is the only one with any production scale.  You have to wait for a Hyundai or Kia because they can only make like 50,000 a year globally.   They should be making 500,000 a year, but they can't.  So all these car companies keep advertising EV's and getting people interested, then they have no supply, so people just go buy a Tesla.

Do you just deliberately go out of your way to ignore all valid counter points and just keep saying the same garbage until everyone thinks it’s actually true? Again, how many years did it take Tesla to reach that scale (with large government subsidies, I might add)? Don’t answer because we already know how long which is the key part of the counter argument you continue to ignore. 

1 hour ago, surreal1272 said:

Do you just deliberately go out of your way to ignore all valid counter points and just keep saying the same garbage until everyone thinks it’s actually true? Again, how many years did it take Tesla to reach that scale (with large government subsidies, I might add)? Don’t answer because we already know how long which is the key part of the counter argument you continue to ignore. 

It took Tesla that long because they had to build factories.  A couple years ago Tesla had 1 factory capable of 500,000 units per year.  Now they have 4 factories and more coming.  GM, Ford, Hyundai, Toyota, etc have many factories already.  GM has had the Bolt on sale for 5 years already and they are still at a 40,000 a year capacity for it with a 70,000 forecast for 2023.  That's a fairly slow ramp up, when the Bolt with a tax credit next year should be the #1 selling car in America.

3 hours ago, David said:

Wrong, Tesla is not just the default everyone is buying, the discounts and quick delivery is proof of that now.

Like all new Autos, there is a ramp up period and you know this that they cannot just turn a handle and go from 50,000 to 500,000 a year.

BYD is doing quite well also in EV sales and targeting 4 million EV's in 2023.   I assume the clock is ticking for when they decide to hit the US market with low cost EV's.  The tax credit will help the domestics, but they better be ready for that too.  I get it takes time to ramp up, but if BYD is at 4 million next year, 5 million+ in 2024 when GM is tagging 400,000 in 2024, that is a lot of ramping up that GM is behind on.  And I think being a first mover is important with this EV switch.

1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

GM has had the Bolt on sale for 5 years already and they are still at a 40,000 a year capacity for it with a 70,000 forecast for 2023.

Dumb example since it was never intended for the kind of volume you are "demanding". It uses old tech (buy EV standards) and thus is cheaper to sell now, hence the increase there. That has ZERO connection to their Ultium products, which WILL TAKE TIME to get to higher volume sales due to the many reasons already given to you by multiple people here. Stop ignoring those facts in order to keep up this stupid crusade against a domestic make. It is just old and tiresome at this point.

21 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

Dumb example since it was never intended for the kind of volume you are "demanding". It uses old tech (buy EV standards) and thus is cheaper to sell now, hence the increase there. That has ZERO connection to their Ultium products, which WILL TAKE TIME to get to higher volume sales due to the many reasons already given to you by multiple people here. Stop ignoring those facts in order to keep up this stupid crusade against a domestic make. It is just old and tiresome at this point.

I am just saying if GM wants to capitalize, they need to scale up faster than VW, Toyota or Ford do or before the Chinese cars get here.  And the same can be said for anyone else, whoever moves too late or slow will be left out.

15 hours ago, smk4565 said:

I am just saying if GM wants to capitalize, they need to scale up faster than VW, Toyota or Ford do or before the Chinese cars get here.  And the same can be said for anyone else, whoever moves too late or slow will be left out.

First, common sense, EVERYONE, EVERYONE has to ramp up battery production. BYD has had huge help from the Communist party. I DO NOT see BYD coming to the U.S. any time soon. The current auto's DO NOT meet our crash test or other safety requirements.

Even in China where VW is a leading ICE and among Non-Chinese auto companies lead that market, but even for them they are having to ramp up.

End result is while GM has secured plenty of capacity for raw materials, is currently building 4 battery cell plants, upgrading multiple assembly plants to support EVs, it takes time, just like it took Tesla a decade to get where they are now. GM will have done what Tesla did in 10 years in about 2 years' time as all the plants come online.

Even if Tesla gets their Cyber Truck POS starting to be produced, it will still take them a year to ramp up to a steady build of trucks which tesla has stated will be about 100,000 trucks at full capacity. They are working to get test mules out and even that is not running yet. Full production is expected by the end of 2023 with them recording their first quarter full production sales at the end of March 2024.

Tesla to start Cybertruck production two years late - report - Just Auto (just-auto.com)

Tesla has not stated what they consider full production but has stated it will likely follow the other models that were brought online in a plant and ramped up, so that would be 100,000 trucks at the end of 2023 and who know s how much more.

GM and FORD are officially on record with turning out a new truck every minute or less. Ford is on official record that this year they have been turning out a new truck every 52 seconds.

Ford Dearborn Truck Plant Gives Birth To An F-150 Every 52 Seconds (fordauthority.com)

Tesla will have a harder time ramping up than the Legacy OEMs will.

Toyota and pretty much any company that is behind in the EV race is going to find it harder and harder regardless of how much money they have to catch up as they slip further and further behind. Toyota has not prepped well for the EV future and so will find it harder and harder with every year they are delayed in moving to EVs.

BYD will come eventually, and other Chinese cars will likely follow.  

If GM gets up to scale in 2024 and is rolling they can make a big impact.  And since Cybertruck really won't be hitting volume until 2024, if GM can build their pickups at a faster volume they can block that threat off.  And Ford can build a gas F150 every 52 seconds, but they can't make EV's at that rate.  That's why this is all up for grabs.  Whoever can make EVs that are actually affordable and not $100k sports sedans or $100k trucks, but run of the mill $35k crossovers that you can sell 400,000 a year of is going to be a big winner.

1 minute ago, smk4565 said:

BYD will come eventually, and other Chinese cars will likely follow.  

In the US market?

Im not really following this thread.  Did I miss anything.  When has BYD decided to sell in the US market.  NHTSA has greenlit BYD EVs for the US market? 

Im confused. 

16 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

 And since Cybertruck really won't be hitting volume until 2024, if GM can build their pickups at a faster volume they can block that threat off.

Cybertruck was never a real threat.  Cybertruck was never a real attempt for a pick up truck.  Cybertruck is just eye candy. A poster vehicle for teenagers and geeky Tesla sheeple to put up in the bedrooms and their garages. 

GMC HUMMER EV does a better job at being a poster vehicle AND it being an actual legit EV product. And despite a recent but small recall, HUMMERS are being ordered like no tomorrow.

As of July 2022, General Motors had 80 000 orders.   REAL orders.

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/07/gm-has-80000-gmc-hummer-ev-reservations-so-far/

As of Oct 2022.  Hummer orders are SOLD OUT for at least 2 years.   GM has capped that number, to which I diont know what number that is.  The article below says that there is a 90 000 unit reservation.  I guess 90 000 is the break even point.  GM has capped it somewhere  and it has sold out for at least 2 years.   Im guessing that the Silvardo EV and the new GMC Sierrar Denali EV will pick up (pun intended) where the HUMMER EV leaves off, and then some, until GM gets the true EV pick-up truck replacements on line. (With a configurable beds) 

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/10/gmc-hummer-ev-pickup-suv-sold-out-for-at-least-two-years/

The Cybertruck hasnt even started production yet.  Mid 2023...    And with Musk concetrating on Twitter,  and Musk being a micro-managing moron,  despite the already delays to get the Cybertruck on line, since late 2021, there doesnt seem to be any urgency.  

Buying Twitter. Not buying Twiiter. Accusing Twitter. Laying low for two months to buying Twitter again and firing almost everybody and having some poor schmuck take photos of him working hard on....Twitter seems to be more important.

So really, you mentioning Cybertruck as some sort of GM competition sometime in 2024 was not really a discussion point.  

Cybertruck was dated when it was introduced. Only a handful of people were awestricken with it. 

That was in Nov of 2019.  

That was 3 years ago to the day almost.

It comes out now, its old news.  It will come out 2 years from now. That would be 5 years from when it was first revealed.   It will be ancient by then...    

2 hours ago, oldshurst442 said:

In the US market?

Im not really following this thread.  Did I miss anything.  When has BYD decided to sell in the US market.  NHTSA has greenlit BYD EVs for the US market? 

Im confused. 

Cybertruck was never a real threat.  Cybertruck was never a real attempt for a pick up truck.  Cybertruck is just eye candy. A poster vehicle for teenagers and geeky Tesla sheeple to put up in the bedrooms and their garages. 

GMC HUMMER EV does a better job at being a poster vehicle AND it being an actual legit EV product. And despite a recent but small recall, HUMMERS are being ordered like no tomorrow.

As of July 2022, General Motors had 80 000 orders.   REAL orders.

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/07/gm-has-80000-gmc-hummer-ev-reservations-so-far/

 

As of Oct 2022.  Hummer orders are SOLD OUT for at least 2 years.   GM has capped that number, to which I diont know what number that is.  The article below says that there is a 90 000 unit reservation.  I guess 90 000 is the break even point.  GM has capped it somewhere  and it has sold out for at least 2 years.   Im guessing that the Silvardo EV and the new GMC Sierrar Denali EV will pick up (pun intended) where the HUMMER EV leaves off, and then some, until GM gets the true EV pick-up truck replacements on line. (With a configurable beds) 

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/10/gmc-hummer-ev-pickup-suv-sold-out-for-at-least-two-years/

 

The Cybertruck hasnt even started production yet.  Mid 2023...    And with Musk concetrating on Twitter,  and Musk being a micro-managing moron,  despite the already delays to get the Cybertruck on line, since late 2021, there doesnt seem to be any urgency.  

Buying Twitter. Not buying Twiiter. Accusing Twitter. Laying low for two months to buying Twitter again and firing almost everybody and having some poor schmuck take photos of him working hard on....Twitter seems to be more important.

So really, you mentioning Cybertruck as some sort of GM competition sometime in 2024 was not really a discussion point.  

Cybertruck was dated when it was introduced. Only a handful of people were awestricken with it. 

That was in Nov of 2019.  

That was 3 years ago to the day almost.

It comes out now, its old news.  It will come out 2 years from now. That would be 5 years from when it was first revealed.   It will be ancient by then...    

 

BYD is making electric buses and school busses in California.  There has been talk of their cars coming here for a while, eventually they will.  They are #2 in the world in EV sales, #1 in the world in EV + plug-in hybrid sales.

All these companies talk about orders and reservations, but how many of those are just people looking to flip it for profit if they get an early one, and once that opportunity goes away they can just cancel the reservation.   I'd rather see actual sales, the Cybertruk at one point had 1 million reservations, but they have sold zero o f them so who really cares until they actually sell them.