Tesla Hasn't Finalized Model 3 Design

Yup, so much for the 400,000 or 500,000 presales, if this gets 30,000 delivered in 2018 I will be surprised.

Reality, I bet over half of these become canceled once people can drive the BOLT or Ioniq EV. People will realize, no need to wait for Tesla.

It's mainly the interior. For f@#ks sake did people really think that the 17" tablet was really going to stay? The whole dash needs to be scrapped and re-done. 

We'll they do have to solve the battery problem since the gigafactory is not in production yet. Fix the current quality issues on the current S & X models plus get parts so they can actually build the darn car.

Wait and see what happens, next 18 months are going to be very interesting for Tesla.

The gigafactory is in production but not at full production levels. 

The gigafactory is in production but not at full production levels. 

One of the two links provided said it was not in production yet, still building the site unless this is outdated info, but even then, they should be able to ramp better than if the building part is done.

 

The gigafactory is in production but not at full production levels. 

One of the two links provided said it was not in production yet, still building the site unless this is outdated info, but even then, they should be able to ramp better than if the building part is done.

 

Scroll way down towards the bottom and there is a little more info on the Gigafactory. It's pretty amazing how large it will be and how small what IS there really is in comparison.

"Twenty-five miles east of downtown Reno, Nevada, in the rolling hills south of Interstate 80 sits one of the largest graded construction pads ever made. On this site, Tesla has been busy rapidly constructing a behemoth of a lithium-ion battery factory that will eventually be one of the world’s largest buildings. The fully realized factory is not scheduled to be finished until 2020, but already the structure is big by any measure; it’s currently running 24 hours a day and producing Tesla Powerpacks and Powerwalls. Eventually Tesla will make Model 3 battery packs at this building, dropping the cost of Tesla batteries by 30 percent. Here are some gigafacts to wrap your head around."

http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-photos-analysis/

 

 

The gigafactory is in production but not at full production levels. 

One of the two links provided said it was not in production yet, still building the site unless this is outdated info, but even then, they should be able to ramp better than if the building part is done.

 

Scroll way down towards the bottom and there is a little more info on the Gigafactory. It's pretty amazing how large it will be and how small what IS there really is in comparison.

 

"Twenty-five miles east of downtown Reno, Nevada, in the rolling hills south of Interstate 80 sits one of the largest graded construction pads ever made. On this site, Tesla has been busy rapidly constructing a behemoth of a lithium-ion battery factory that will eventually be one of the world’s largest buildings. The fully realized factory is not scheduled to be finished until 2020, but already the structure is big by any measure; it’s currently running 24 hours a day and producing Tesla Powerpacks and Powerwalls. Eventually Tesla will make Model 3 battery packs at this building, dropping the cost of Tesla batteries by 30 percent. Here are some gigafacts to wrap your head around."

http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-photos-analysis/

 

Cool, thank you for pointing that out. I took a break and flew through the links and missed this.

Wonder just how many LI cells they are producing now.

There are certain parameters WRT customer expectation that Tesla is going to have to meet, traditional or not.

Thanx Drew.

Took the words right out of my....um...keyboard.

+1 to Drew for pointing out an overlooked truth about Tesla. Not your Grandfather's Car Company is it!

Musk and his tap dancing.  Rudderless boat

Musk and his tap dancing.  Rudderless boat

Sorry Reg...

http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/news/a29134/tesla-model-s-p85d-police-car-lapd/

From the LAPD...

The LAPD has apparently been impressed enough with the Tesla Model S that it's considering using them as police cars. The police department has been testing two high-performance P85D sedans for more than a year.

 

Partly due to its high price, the Model S won't see official duty for a while, but the LAPD already sees its potential in the long run.

"Is it practical now? No," said Yegiyan. But in "the next three to five years . . . not only will the industry push toward electrification, but prices will drop on vehicles. While that's occurring we'll be in the space learning and contributing to the process."

 

"In California, there's pressure from above and there's also a desire on the part of the (electric vehicle) manufacturers to get their vehicles out there," Tom Libby, an analyst at IHS Automotive, told CNBC.

But don't expect conventional automakers like Ford and Dodge to let Tesla move in on law enforcement fleet sales without a fight. "We are a leader in law enforcement, and we intend to remain the leader," Randy Freiburger, Ford police and ambulance fleet supervisor, told CNBC.

 

You folk could poke fun at Musk all you want..

The guy does not have to do anything, and people flock to his cars...

I think the guy knows what he is doing...I think its the naysayers and the status quo guys that are afraid of the electric storm that is heading our way...trying to find any little flaw they can whether its sales figure estimates or production capacity (it used to be trying to undermine the popularity of an EV or a Tesla but the Model 3 pre-orders muzzled that thought process...to undermine the blitzkrieg that is heading our way...

good deal, GM will be at the forefront of that, and will buy all the Tesla scraps.  Word is GM has a tesla S beater in the works for many thousands less......and possibly the Avista styling.

good deal, GM will be at the forefront of that, and will buy all the Tesla scraps.  Word is GM has a tesla S beater in the works for many thousands less......and possibly the Avista styling.

Ha!

Cadillac put the CT8 on hold..

The Avista is also a project that will eat dust...

Maybe, the next Regal will get styling cues from it...maybe...

Think about what that means....

And...if Tesla is scraps...why would GM waste good money for it?

Aint Voltec and Boltec superior technologies?

Yeah...that is right...GM does not need 400 000 pre-orders for the Bolt....

Lets see how many Bolts they actually sell versus the Model 3...

Hell, Ill give you Volt sells too...Lets see if GM could outsell Tesla by 2021 on EVs...

The thing is...Tesla has an electrifying personality that JDN wishes he could sell his sole for for Cadillac...

Sure 500 000 Tesla cars by 2018 is a very tough sell...for many reasons....Tesla logistics alone hamper that number...but dont kid yourself, 500 000 Tesla cars sold annually aint too far off from 2018...they have a strong fan base and following...

I wanna know if anybody in the early 1900s questioned Henri Ford and his visions?

Henri after all, lost his first company to bear his name...

Word is GM has a tesla S beater in the works for many thousands less......and possibly the Avista styling.

What/where is that word from??

It's been proven time again that timeliness matters more than costs for game-changing vehicles.

My bet is that they are project crashing up the butt...but it'll be an expensive proposition. They have an order back log, that is very similar to how capital goods manufacturing companies work. 

Many times such as in aerospace, you end up with concurrency. When the production begins before the technology is fully matured. With respect to how battery tech continues to improve, buying an electric vehicle often times has the decision revolving around whether you have faith that the range will remain competitive in just a few short years.

But again, once you hit a certain range, say 300 miles per charge, and maybe like a 15-20 minute charge time (from a fast charger)....the focus can then be put on cost reduction solely, and increasing infrastructure.

I wanna know if anybody in the early 1900s questioned Henri Ford and his visions?

Henri after all, lost his first company to bear his name...

Actually, Henry lost his first TWO companies.

And yes, he was definately 'questioned' but he also had his backers.

Side bar : It took Ford 13 years to hit 500,000 units.

Tesla is now in its 13th year.

7 years after hitting 500,000 units, Ford reached 2 million. This in an era where people were not predisposed to buying cars, and when there were hundreds upon hundreds upon hundreds of competing companies, rather than a few dozen.

I see many parallels with FoMoCo and Ford and Tesla and Musk.

http://www.history.com/topics/henry-ford

From the link:

• While working as an engineer for the Edison Illuminating Company in Detroit

Musk....co-founder of Pay-Pal...

Both were doing different things before ending up in the car biz...

• built his first gasoline-powered horseless carriage, the Quadricycle, in the shed behind his home. In 1903, he established the Ford Motor Company, and five years later the company rolled out the first Model T

Musk...started out at Tesla....in 2008, yeah, he didnt start the company, but helped out financially in 2008 when most all other car companies had financial problems in that same time frame...

Ford lost his companies twice (I thought it was only once) before FoMoCo got off its feet..

First EV Tesla produced was the Roadster....a body shell from Lotus...

4-5-6 years later did the Model S arrive...the EV that would revolutionize the world....

FoMoCo had the Model T....5 years after FoMoCo took off. A car that revolutionized the world....

• In 1896, he completed what he called the “Quadricycle,” which consisted of a light metal frame fitted with four bicycle wheels and powered by a two-cylinder, four-horsepower gasoline engine.
• Ford sold the Quadricycle in order to continue building other vehicles. He received backing from various investors over the next seven years, some of whom formed the Detroit Automobile Company (later the Henry Ford Company) in 1899.

     (this would be a sidebar...because Tesla learned faster to perfect the EV formula than Ford learned to perfect the automobile formula....sure....one could say that its easy to take an existing automotive formula to  transform that into an EV, especially when the Ford's 1st automobile was engineered in 1896....however, Tesla does not really use that formula, Tesla engineers also, added their ingredients to make the Tesla Model S....sure with the help of old school Detroit, I learned that from Peter DeLorenzo, but I think we should start stopping the question marks surrounding Tesla...)

• A month after the Ford Motor Company was established, the first Ford car—the two-cylinder, eight-horsepower Model A—was assembled at a plant on Mack Avenue in Detroit. At the time, only a few cars were assembled per day, and groups of two or three workers built them by hand from parts that were ordered from other companies.

This sounds so familiar....oh yeah....TESLA....

The “Tin Lizzie,” as the Model T was known, was an immediate success, and Ford soon had more orders than the company could satisfy. As a result, he put into practice techniques of mass production that would revolutionize American industry, including the use of large production plants; standardized, interchangeable parts; and the moving assembly line. Mass production significantly cut down on the time required to produce an automobile, which allowed costs to stay low. In 1914, Ford also increased the daily wage for an eight-hour day for his workers to $5

Well...the Model S did not take off like the Model T, but the Model 3 sure  did...

The use of large production plants for FoMoCo?

What about Tesla?

Oh yeah....the world's largest building producing lithium batteries....to get batteries prie tags low enough so more people could afford EVs...and everything else that requires batteries....that includes iPhones and powerdrills and lawn mowers...

I dont know about the wages part though...hopefully Musk does the same for his workers..

Even the car names are the same.

Model A, Model T, Model S, Model X

Musk....has accomplished something  in 2016 with the Model 3 that is very different than the Model T in 1916...

The automobile in the turn of the 20th century was a new thing....it was exciting.....it was the horseless carriage...

Well...the Model S did not take off like the Model T, but the Model 3 sure  did…

You are talking about 2 very different metrics here.

- - - - -

I personally would like to see Tesla succeed.

• I like the Model S, I think in general it's excellent (tho it's overdue for a re-skin).

• The Model X is a 5/10 tho- some choices made there that were not the best and quality & production has been mediocre at best to date.

• Model 3 right now is a complete unknown; design, features, price, production capacity. Impossible to hang future success on just yet.

• The company's balance sheet is not fiscally well.

All the above certainly may change, just a 'State of the Union' as it is to date. 

In the standings, that's ~

W : 1, tie : 1, coming to bat...

The Model X...

I think Musk himself admitted he kinda let the hooplah surrounding Tesla and its popularity make poor decisions on it.

He confessed they over engineered the car.

http://www.businessinsider.com/musk-model-x-not-sure-tesla-will-make-2016-2

• "There was some hubris with the Model X," Musk said. "We over-engineered the car."According to the Tesla CEO, everything from the seals around the windows to the construction of the second-row seats proved to be hurdles.But Musk said the company overcame these issues, which led to a redesign of certain window seals and the insourcing of seat construction.
• Musk told journalists it was so hard to put together that Tesla probably shouldn't have made it in the first place.

When was the last time we heard from a traditional automobile manufacturer say it how it is and admit to errors?

Self admittance. Not from a court order...

Tesla self polices itself and learns from their missteps...well, it seems to be this way on the outside....

So...when I read stuff like self tap dancing on a rudderless boat...I kinda get upset...

OK...with that drama outta the way...

Im sure part of their fiscal well being, or lack their of, is because of the high costs of the technology involved.

And the high costs of constructing the biggest building in the world.

And then furnishing it with all kinds of very high tech furniture such as robots and sensors and stuff...

And then single handily making an infrastructure....worldwide..or at least in two countries that I know of... 

And of course cost over runs...which every manufacturer of any kind of product will experience...but especially a start-up. No longer a start-up?

Whatever I says....the Model S....it may need a skin re-do, it still represents the first real  car produced as a start-up...

The Ford Model T....took 2 decades to be replaced with very minor exterior details changed in that 2 decade span...I realize that what I just said about the Model T and 2 decades is very open to discussion, but to that I say.....semantics....

The Model 3....is still fresh....

Its a small step above vapor ware at this point...I agree.

However, I dont feel comfortable in doubting what Elon Musk has to say about the Model 3 as I doubt that Elon Musk is on the same footing as one called Sergio...

The Model S, as a first real car Tesla ever produced just about....perfect.

Relatively flawless...and I repeat...the first ever REAL car Tesla produced, and that is why I say it is flawless.

The Model X seems to have had the glitzes that a first real attempt at car building should have had....but Elon Musk is fully aware of all that...

I also think its foolish to doubt the power that the Tesla brand name holds.

400 000 people took pre-orders on a Model 3.

Delays?

The power of Tesla tells me that MOST of the people will wait for the Model 3 regardless the waiting time.

The Chevrolet Bolt?

Well, the Tesla brand name for ELECTRIC vehicles is waaaaaay more prestigious and powerful than a Chevrolet Bolt or Volt....and actually, for the short term, a Model S has just as much prestige as a Camaro or Corvette.

Meaning, a Model 3 has a waiting period?

Well, when a Chevy guy has to wait for the new Vette or Camaro to come out, and there might be a delay or recall or stop sale, such as it happened with the heat soak issues on the C7 Z06, did those guys run out to buy Ford Mustangs or Porsche Caymans?

No....no they did not!

Model 3 is at bat...will it hit a home run?

For Tesla's sake, it better at least make contact with the ball...

Like you said though....State of the Union status indeed....

 

Word is GM has a tesla S beater in the works for many thousands less......and possibly the Avista styling.

 

What/where is that word from??

 

it was bounced out there on 'another site'  Avista may become an EV.  Avista styling plus EV

promises that are really just vaporware, but be sure to get the customers money and tell them 'it's on the way'

But....but...what does that car have to do with Tesla, the Model S, X or 3? ....or even the Roadster?

Or are you eluding that Elon Musk will run-a-away with the $400 000 000 Model 3 deposits and hide on Mars?

Because he has a rocket ship....

Because you are forgetting one thing Reg...

$400 000 000 is a drop in the bucket for what Tesla the company has already invested in to make sure the Model 3 is a sales success and a hit and delivered to its customers...

Starting with..already delivered...several thousand cars already

with many boutiques and service centers all OVER THE WORLD!!!

Supercharging stations...all over the world, financed mostly by themselves

As opposed to 1 dealership for Elio Motors from that pic you posted!

Its OK....maybe Elon and Tesla chose the wrong country produce its cars and batteries...

Maybe Elon should have gone.....lets say....to France instead...

This way...some of you Americans could continue to whine that there are no manufacturing jobs left in the USA...

I am VERY happy that we have TESLA. Do I believe it will stay independant? No, but if it was not for Tesla, then we would not have the BOLT, Leaf, etc.

Someone had to finally kick the bully's, aka the biggest auto companies in the nuts to finally move off petro.

BOLT, Tesla 3 I say YES!

Where here is the Tesla conundrum. 

They need money because they have yet to make a profit on the S model and spent a ton of money on the X that also has yet to turn a profit. 

Like any other automaker the development cost are staggering and the presales of the 3 were needed for the money to continue to work to get it into production.  Reports hold them at nearling only 1 Billion left after the X model with slow production and continued issued in the already sold models. 

The three was clear at into that it was not complete and that they would need more time to finish it and even get it into production.  It is also clear that the price will go up and many still question with added incoming compitition from other companies how many people will remain on the list if other MFG get into the game. 

The average price of a 3 is expected to be much more by the time the cars are optioned out. 

I do expect the 3 will be out but late and more expensive. How quality is TBD as Tesla has been suffering more in this area of late. 

Part of the reason Tesla has done well is they are not our grandfathers automaker but on the other hand where they will struggle is they are resisting to do things the way our Grandfathers automakers have learned to do it over 100 years, 

As for Henry with a Y The comparison is tough as times were much different but the area that is similar is his early cars were expensive. Where he really made out is when he brought production cost way down and lowered the prices to where even a low income family could afford a car. The Tesla 3 has not reached the level of a lower income buyer or even average buyer yet. To be fair GM is working on that too yet but they still have not reached that price but are going to be closer. 

Tesla will lose the tax rebate soon too so that too will effect sales as others will still have it to offer. 

Tesla or not all other automakers still need to work the EV area as the Zero Emissions mandate is still there and will be growing globally. Now is the time to work to bring down the cost of these cars as the gas cars sales will still support them comfortably. 

What Tesla has done is amazing but in full disclosure it is not as amazing as some would like to make you think. One must separate the truth from the hype with Elon and then you can only get a real snap shot of what is going on. 

It boils down to this, IMO : price.

Tesla sold 52K Model Ss in '15- a fine car but there has been no world-wide clamor / lines to reserve it- relative to the Model 3. Understandable: it starts @ $70K.

Model X has had a very slow roll-out, and it's generally priced higher. Very low pre-order numbers, relative to the 3.

Model 3 is by far the most important model ever for Tesla. But IMO a HUGE portion of the pre-orders are hanging on the "affordable" claim, maybe 75%, who knows. The final design, features & price are unknowns @ this point, but the concept of 'affordable electric' has people stirred up. Good marketing.

BUT, what percentage of the 'pre-orderers' are going to balk if the PRICE is generally no longer considered affordable?? IE; if the $35K starting price fails to be met AND the $7500 tax credit is gone before the 3 even gets here… and suddenly the 3 is not $35K but $45 or 50K?? That's going to cancel a lot of orders…. who knows how many. There's not many car shoppers who agree that '$35K' and '$50K' are remotely the same thing. 

It's not just the economies of scale that's important to Tesla's future, it's the very real balancing act of getting production up & price controlled (and balancing the cashing of orders relative to what they believe can be built). If orders are cashed too prematurely, without product delivery, they may see significant backlash. It's a delicate scenario.

I've read some realistic analyses that suggest model 3 actual prices will need to be about 50 grand for tesla come close to even making $$$$.

Meanwhile. Volt has highest customer satisfaction of any GM car, conquests other brands and turns them into happy Gm fans. The Volt is dead nuts reliable and has a huge quality rep which is amazing for such a pioneering car while teslas are not recommended.

Volts sticker at 40k and less and presumably GM can make a go of it. They could easily scale up the size of their EV platforms at any point for larger vehicles to sell mid size cars and crossovers with the same powertrains. There will be a tipping point where they will respond and do that.

2 key people leaving tesla right before model 3 launch smells to me like things are not rosy at tesla and the sticker shock of the true model 3 price will mean again you won't see them revolutionize things in the next 5 years.....so judgment day will come sooner on them than you think.

Maybe those 2 key people were fired...

Maybe those 2 key people were responsible for the Model X snafus....

And....are any of us, or any other critic or analyst, economic or otherwise, amateur or professional, working for Tesla and know for 100% certainty at what prices the Model3 should sell for Tesla to make a profit?

Other than those questions I posed, points very well taken...

The rest....is just assumptions, worries, gossip, wishful thinking on both sides of the coin, and unnecessary drama...

Time will tell what is gonna become of Tesla, the Model 3, the production numbers, the delivery dates and the profits....

Guesstimating intelligently is still assuming...

As for Henry with a "Y" instead of Henri with an "i"...

I think en français des fois...(sometimes)

Henri Richard...younger brother of Maurice Richard...

11 Stanley Cup champion Henri is....

Henri-Bourassa Metro Station in Montréal

You could see how I would flub Mr. Ford's name...

Vive le Québec Libre I say...

Where here is the Tesla conundrum. 

They need money because they have yet to make a profit on the S model and spent a ton of money on the X that also has yet to turn a profit. 

Like any other automaker the development cost are staggering and the presales of the 3 were needed for the money to continue to work to get it into production.  Reports hold them at nearling only 1 Billion left after the X model with slow production and continued issued in the already sold models. 

The three was clear at into that it was not complete and that they would need more time to finish it and even get it into production.  It is also clear that the price will go up and many still question with added incoming compitition from other companies how many people will remain on the list if other MFG get into the game. 

The average price of a 3 is expected to be much more by the time the cars are optioned out. 

I do expect the 3 will be out but late and more expensive. How quality is TBD as Tesla has been suffering more in this area of late. 

 

Part of the reason Tesla has done well is they are not our grandfathers automaker but on the other hand where they will struggle is they are resisting to do things the way our Grandfathers automakers have learned to do it over 100 years, 

 

As for Henry with a Y The comparison is tough as times were much different but the area that is similar is his early cars were expensive. Where he really made out is when he brought production cost way down and lowered the prices to where even a low income family could afford a car. The Tesla 3 has not reached the level of a lower income buyer or even average buyer yet. To be fair GM is working on that too yet but they still have not reached that price but are going to be closer. 

 

Tesla will lose the tax rebate soon too so that too will effect sales as others will still have it to offer. 

Tesla or not all other automakers still need to work the EV area as the Zero Emissions mandate is still there and will be growing globally. Now is the time to work to bring down the cost of these cars as the gas cars sales will still support them comfortably. 

 

What Tesla has done is amazing but in full disclosure it is not as amazing as some would like to make you think. One must separate the truth from the hype with Elon and then you can only get a real snap shot of what is going on. 

And there is competition on bringing the price of battery cells down - LG Chem:

http://www.autonews.com/article/20151214/OEM06/312149992/lg-chem-quietly-surges-in-battery-race

The above article is dated because I have read that Audi and Nissan plan on using LG Chem. They have plants going up in Poland and China to augment what they already have in the USA (Holland, Michigan) and China. 

What Musk did was to destroy the stupid misconception that an EV must be weak and lack performance. For that alone, he should be given a statue. The good news, IMO, is that battery cost per kWh is approaching $100 much faster than I DOE report published around 2010. 

Aftermarket battery packs to retrofit cars could lead to more of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie7qvo-aC5k

Maybe those 2 key people were fired...

Maybe those 2 key people were responsible for the Model X snafus....

 

And....are any of us, or any other critic or analyst, economic or otherwise, amateur or professional, working for Tesla and know for 100% certainty at what prices the Model3 should sell for Tesla to make a profit?

 

Other than those questions I posed, points very well taken...

 

The rest....is just assumptions, worries, gossip, wishful thinking on both sides of the coin, and unnecessary drama...

 

Time will tell what is gonna become of Tesla, the Model 3, the production numbers, the delivery dates and the profits....

 

Guesstimating intelligently is still assuming...

 

 

As for Henry with a "Y" instead of Henri with an "i"...

 

I think en français des fois...(sometimes)

 

Henri Richard...younger brother of Maurice Richard...

11 Stanley Cup champion Henri is....

Henri-Bourassa Metro Station in Montréal

 

 

 

You could see how I would flub Mr. Ford's name...

Vive le Québec Libre I say...

I guess we should call the Tesla 3 the "pocket rocket", eh? As an aside to lighten the subject, my father was a Detroit Red Wings season tickets owner in the 1950s and told me there was nothing more exiting than watching Henri's older brother skate the puck from his zone to the other and score an unassisted goal. He said those blazing eyes were frightening. Old time hockey - no teeth and proud of it. 

Back in the days of TV only over the airwaves, this was the best theme song, bar none. Detroit got CKLW - channel 9:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEA5FSkGlhE

 

Where here is the Tesla conundrum. 

They need money because they have yet to make a profit on the S model and spent a ton of money on the X that also has yet to turn a profit. 

Like any other automaker the development cost are staggering and the presales of the 3 were needed for the money to continue to work to get it into production.  Reports hold them at nearling only 1 Billion left after the X model with slow production and continued issued in the already sold models. 

The three was clear at into that it was not complete and that they would need more time to finish it and even get it into production.  It is also clear that the price will go up and many still question with added incoming compitition from other companies how many people will remain on the list if other MFG get into the game. 

The average price of a 3 is expected to be much more by the time the cars are optioned out. 

I do expect the 3 will be out but late and more expensive. How quality is TBD as Tesla has been suffering more in this area of late. 

 

Part of the reason Tesla has done well is they are not our grandfathers automaker but on the other hand where they will struggle is they are resisting to do things the way our Grandfathers automakers have learned to do it over 100 years, 

 

As for Henry with a Y The comparison is tough as times were much different but the area that is similar is his early cars were expensive. Where he really made out is when he brought production cost way down and lowered the prices to where even a low income family could afford a car. The Tesla 3 has not reached the level of a lower income buyer or even average buyer yet. To be fair GM is working on that too yet but they still have not reached that price but are going to be closer. 

 

Tesla will lose the tax rebate soon too so that too will effect sales as others will still have it to offer. 

Tesla or not all other automakers still need to work the EV area as the Zero Emissions mandate is still there and will be growing globally. Now is the time to work to bring down the cost of these cars as the gas cars sales will still support them comfortably. 

 

What Tesla has done is amazing but in full disclosure it is not as amazing as some would like to make you think. One must separate the truth from the hype with Elon and then you can only get a real snap shot of what is going on. 

 

And there is competition on bringing the price of battery cells down - LG Chem:

 

http://www.autonews.com/article/20151214/OEM06/312149992/lg-chem-quietly-surges-in-battery-race

 

The above article is dated because I have read that Audi and Nissan plan on using LG Chem. They have plants going up in Poland and China to augment what they already have in the USA (Holland, Michigan) and China. 

 

What Musk did was to destroy the stupid misconception that an EV must be weak and lack performance. For that alone, he should be given a statue. The good news, IMO, is that battery cost per kWh is approaching $100 much faster than I DOE report published around 2010. 

 

Aftermarket battery packs to retrofit cars could lead to more of this:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie7qvo-aC5k

 

Musk proved you could sell an expensive EV car that did not look like a Science experiment. It was a risk in that would people buy it but it also lowered the risk of a start up lower volume model as the high price covered the cost. While large MFG were not willing to take the risk it was his only choice as he was not going to make it by selling a smaller volume of cheap cars. 

He is a businessman and just took the only path he had. 

Also his PT Barnum like marketing of overselling and turning the car into a quasi like religion has given the EV a higher profile. 

On the other hand he has also over promised and under delivered often. The three will also be the same. But that is the risk of business. 

I would give him credit where credit is due but not over do it with a statue. He has gotten much right but also made many mistakes to and will again, he is just a man like any other. Elon does not walk on water.

But many successful people failed more than they succeeded. But that is tough to do in this  market wit shareholders. He has a limited amount of time to meet goals that are still pretty lofty. Add in the increased competition etc. 

His best bet may be to remain in the high priced luxury market and leave the car for the average guy to the companies that can absorb the cost. 

Future is electric and I appreciate Musk for destroying the old image of what EV could or would be.

Over all electric is fun and the future. I do like this video!

 

 

Where here is the Tesla conundrum. 

They need money because they have yet to make a profit on the S model and spent a ton of money on the X that also has yet to turn a profit. 

Like any other automaker the development cost are staggering and the presales of the 3 were needed for the money to continue to work to get it into production.  Reports hold them at nearling only 1 Billion left after the X model with slow production and continued issued in the already sold models. 

The three was clear at into that it was not complete and that they would need more time to finish it and even get it into production.  It is also clear that the price will go up and many still question with added incoming compitition from other companies how many people will remain on the list if other MFG get into the game. 

The average price of a 3 is expected to be much more by the time the cars are optioned out. 

I do expect the 3 will be out but late and more expensive. How quality is TBD as Tesla has been suffering more in this area of late. 

 

Part of the reason Tesla has done well is they are not our grandfathers automaker but on the other hand where they will struggle is they are resisting to do things the way our Grandfathers automakers have learned to do it over 100 years, 

 

As for Henry with a Y The comparison is tough as times were much different but the area that is similar is his early cars were expensive. Where he really made out is when he brought production cost way down and lowered the prices to where even a low income family could afford a car. The Tesla 3 has not reached the level of a lower income buyer or even average buyer yet. To be fair GM is working on that too yet but they still have not reached that price but are going to be closer. 

 

Tesla will lose the tax rebate soon too so that too will effect sales as others will still have it to offer. 

Tesla or not all other automakers still need to work the EV area as the Zero Emissions mandate is still there and will be growing globally. Now is the time to work to bring down the cost of these cars as the gas cars sales will still support them comfortably. 

 

What Tesla has done is amazing but in full disclosure it is not as amazing as some would like to make you think. One must separate the truth from the hype with Elon and then you can only get a real snap shot of what is going on. 

 

And there is competition on bringing the price of battery cells down - LG Chem:

 

http://www.autonews.com/article/20151214/OEM06/312149992/lg-chem-quietly-surges-in-battery-race

 

The above article is dated because I have read that Audi and Nissan plan on using LG Chem. They have plants going up in Poland and China to augment what they already have in the USA (Holland, Michigan) and China. 

 

What Musk did was to destroy the stupid misconception that an EV must be weak and lack performance. For that alone, he should be given a statue. The good news, IMO, is that battery cost per kWh is approaching $100 much faster than I DOE report published around 2010. 

 

Aftermarket battery packs to retrofit cars could lead to more of this:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie7qvo-aC5k

 

 

Musk proved you could sell an expensive EV car that did not look like a Science experiment. It was a risk in that would people buy it but it also lowered the risk of a start up lower volume model as the high price covered the cost. While large MFG were not willing to take the risk it was his only choice as he was not going to make it by selling a smaller volume of cheap cars. 

 

He is a businessman and just took the only path he had. 

 

Also his PT Barnum like marketing of overselling and turning the car into a quasi like religion has given the EV a higher profile. 

On the other hand he has also over promised and under delivered often. The three will also be the same. But that is the risk of business. 

 

I would give him credit where credit is due but not over do it with a statue. He has gotten much right but also made many mistakes to and will again, he is just a man like any other. Elon does not walk on water.

But many successful people failed more than they succeeded. But that is tough to do in this  market wit shareholders. He has a limited amount of time to meet goals that are still pretty lofty. Add in the increased competition etc. 

His best bet may be to remain in the high priced luxury market and leave the car for the average guy to the companies that can absorb the cost. 

 

In the high volume end of the market, process drives product. The Model T was beholden to the efficient manufacturing mandated by Highland Park. Any color as long as its black - because black dried faster. Japan takes this to a high level. A lot of their patents are directed to in-process quality checking or ease of assembly. 

Future is electric and I appreciate Musk for destroying the old image of what EV could or would be.

 

Over all electric is fun and the future. I do like this video!

 

I found this one because the GMI forum was making fun of the two speed powerglide and remembered one of my engineering buddies who built drag racers telling me that box could handle lots of torque - which motors have. So this video is a clear example of man, moment, machine. I like the part where they say the powerglide is a simple way to enable reverse without delving into complex controls. 

The state of the art in battery packs is a flat rectangular unit that can act as a load bearing member. So I see that as an aftermarket unit that can be attached to a ladder frame. Imagine a Ford Panther product with something like this slung to the rails. After wasting a high end European sports sedan at a few lights, one could crank down the window and say "pardon me, do you have any Grey Poupon?"

While we have made much progress there is so much more to do. There is not way yet to say that electric will fully take over yet and if it does when as we still have things to discover that will be needed to make Electric cars not life style changing cars. 

Range, Size, Weight and Charging time will still need to be improved. They are working hard on all but there is no way to put a time table on it and the last one is very important to many customers yet in the majority. If traveling few people will want to have to find a charging station and then wait for it for a partial charge longer than it takes to fill a tank. Also people  procrastinate and will not plug in like they should. Just look at how many people just toss in $5 just to get where they are going because they do not want to spend the time filling as it is. 

I know for sure we ill continue to see improvements but when that discovery of a batter that can charge in 8 min fully and not be damaged in the long term is still out there.

the thing I think will help the most is the space program at NASA once they get back to going to space. This is where most advanced systems come from and the cuts have hurt us. The NASA Glen center in Cleveland has really worked hard on power systems but has been slowed but the present administration. That could change next year? That is even hard to call right now with who we have running.  

As for poweglides they are still the transmission of choice for most racers. We still sell a lot of race units yet today. I laugh how many people buy conversion kits to put them in Mustangs. 

While we have made much progress there is so much more to do. There is not way yet to say that electric will fully take over yet and if it does when as we still have things to discover that will be needed to make Electric cars not life style changing cars. 

Range, Size, Weight and Charging time will still need to be improved. They are working hard on all but there is no way to put a time table on it and the last one is very important to many customers yet in the majority. If traveling few people will want to have to find a charging station and then wait for it for a partial charge longer than it takes to fill a tank. Also people  procrastinate and will not plug in like they should. Just look at how many people just toss in $5 just to get where they are going because they do not want to spend the time filling as it is. 

I know for sure we ill continue to see improvements but when that discovery of a batter that can charge in 8 min fully and not be damaged in the long term is still out there.

the thing I think will help the most is the space program at NASA once they get back to going to space. This is where most advanced systems come from and the cuts have hurt us. The NASA Glen center in Cleveland has really worked hard on power systems but has been slowed but the present administration. That could change next year? That is even hard to call right now with who we have running.  

 

As for poweglides they are still the transmission of choice for most racers. We still sell a lot of race units yet today. I laugh how many people buy conversion kits to put them in Mustangs. 

A lot of technology trickles out of DOD research. For example, when I had radar on my docket, magnetorheological materials were being used in the phase shifting elements of an array to allow for quick beam steering or creating nulls to defeat jamming. Now, we see it used to allow suspensions to quickly change state. 

 

While we have made much progress there is so much more to do. There is not way yet to say that electric will fully take over yet and if it does when as we still have things to discover that will be needed to make Electric cars not life style changing cars. 

Range, Size, Weight and Charging time will still need to be improved. They are working hard on all but there is no way to put a time table on it and the last one is very important to many customers yet in the majority. If traveling few people will want to have to find a charging station and then wait for it for a partial charge longer than it takes to fill a tank. Also people  procrastinate and will not plug in like they should. Just look at how many people just toss in $5 just to get where they are going because they do not want to spend the time filling as it is. 

I know for sure we ill continue to see improvements but when that discovery of a batter that can charge in 8 min fully and not be damaged in the long term is still out there.

the thing I think will help the most is the space program at NASA once they get back to going to space. This is where most advanced systems come from and the cuts have hurt us. The NASA Glen center in Cleveland has really worked hard on power systems but has been slowed but the present administration. That could change next year? That is even hard to call right now with who we have running.  

 

As for poweglides they are still the transmission of choice for most racers. We still sell a lot of race units yet today. I laugh how many people buy conversion kits to put them in Mustangs. 

A lot of technology trickles out of DOD research. For example, when I had radar on my docket, magnetorheological materials were being used in the phase shifting elements of an array to allow for quick beam steering or creating nulls to defeat jamming. Now, we see it used to allow suspensions to quickly change state. 

 

We are in exciting times and Hyper has hit one issue that many people are LAZY about charging, filling up their auto, etc. yet there are just as many who are excited by EVs and willing to plug in at night or find the parking spot with a plug in to recharge.

Exciting more is the 6 projects under way at DOE. They are focused on reducing cost while increasing charge density.

http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/vehicle-technologies-office-batteries

What really surprised me is that DOE started in 2015 with $500 per kwh and they expect by 2022 to have it down to $125 kwh on average which means it could be even lower for larger manufacturers like GM or Tesla and that is also while increasing density of the battery pack. 2015 started with the average battery pack being 100 Wh/kg to 400Wh/kg and have then at 2000W/kg.

Some very cool research going on right now.

http://science.energy.gov/bes/research/doe-energy-innovation-hubs/

Here is what they are doing for a smart grid.

http://energy.gov/oe/services/technology-development/smart-grid

 

 

While we have made much progress there is so much more to do. There is not way yet to say that electric will fully take over yet and if it does when as we still have things to discover that will be needed to make Electric cars not life style changing cars. 

Range, Size, Weight and Charging time will still need to be improved. They are working hard on all but there is no way to put a time table on it and the last one is very important to many customers yet in the majority. If traveling few people will want to have to find a charging station and then wait for it for a partial charge longer than it takes to fill a tank. Also people  procrastinate and will not plug in like they should. Just look at how many people just toss in $5 just to get where they are going because they do not want to spend the time filling as it is. 

I know for sure we ill continue to see improvements but when that discovery of a batter that can charge in 8 min fully and not be damaged in the long term is still out there.

the thing I think will help the most is the space program at NASA once they get back to going to space. This is where most advanced systems come from and the cuts have hurt us. The NASA Glen center in Cleveland has really worked hard on power systems but has been slowed but the present administration. That could change next year? That is even hard to call right now with who we have running.  

 

As for poweglides they are still the transmission of choice for most racers. We still sell a lot of race units yet today. I laugh how many people buy conversion kits to put them in Mustangs. 

A lot of technology trickles out of DOD research. For example, when I had radar on my docket, magnetorheological materials were being used in the phase shifting elements of an array to allow for quick beam steering or creating nulls to defeat jamming. Now, we see it used to allow suspensions to quickly change state. 

 

We are in exciting times and Hyper has hit one issue that many people are LAZY about charging, filling up their auto, etc. yet there are just as many who are excited by EVs and willing to plug in at night or find the parking spot with a plug in to recharge.

 

Exciting more is the 6 projects under way at DOE. They are focused on reducing cost while increasing charge density.

 

http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/vehicle-technologies-office-batteries

 

What really surprised me is that DOE started in 2015 with $500 per kwh and they expect by 2022 to have it down to $125 kwh on average which means it could be even lower for larger manufacturers like GM or Tesla and that is also while increasing density of the battery pack. 2015 started with the average battery pack being 100 Wh/kg to 400Wh/kg and have then at 2000W/kg.

 

Some very cool research going on right now.

 

http://science.energy.gov/bes/research/doe-energy-innovation-hubs/

 

Here is what they are doing for a smart grid.

 

http://energy.gov/oe/services/technology-development/smart-grid

 

Great references, thanks!

I hope the Model 3 is a success.  Tesla can transform the business and the way people travel.  I think it would be great if solar and wind power and battery tech got good enough that we didn't need gasoline in the United States.  That is a huge shift in the way things have been done for 100+ years.  And it gives us cleaner air, and says screw you to the Middle East and their oil. 

One interesting point, GM has a market cap. of $47 billion, Tesla has a market cap of $28 billion.  Tesla isn't some little guy that can just be bought up.

Tesla has a short time period to actually get to cash flow positive and full cost recovery, The projected light vehicle sales taper off in the early 2020s.... for good reasons and bad, but mostly because the demographics simply don't work out that well...as in vehicle sales will most definitely go down, and may not recover for a long time.

America actually produces a lot of its own oil now...

The infrastructure will need a huge investment though. Eventually with so many electric vehicles, charging at night may have higher rates than charging during the day.

I think the one thing Tesla is doing right aside from their vehicles is their battery factory being built with their partners. It's could be potentially a window into the future of battery factories. And apparently some Lithium will come from the California mines. 

The next big commodities will be anything related to batteries/capacitors and water. 

Market cap varies daily. Actually, by the minute.

Tesla has actually lost 10 billion in market cap in the past year.

Market cap is a meaningless number. 

If Tesla had to be liquidated, you could bet the stock price would tumble...probably way closer to the book value of like what...$14 a share?

Tesla has done like Trump and exceeded expectations and to this point no one knows for sure if it will continue.

In the case of Tesla it is like going faster in a car. Going to 100 MPH is tough but the forces on going 200 MPH is even more difficult and then going to 300 is not just triple the effort of the first 100 MPH but 6 times the effort to overcome the forces faces. 

Tesla is much like this today a they have done well but to grow as Musk claims they will need to increase models, volume and production at a rate tough for even normal companies to increase. Then do it with much less income coming in. 

Like the presale of the 3. They did that because they needed the money. The cost of the X model was high and with  no real income outside carbon credits and with the need to start production on a 3 model as well revamping the S and working on additional future models it going to be a squeeze on them and their cash reserves. 

Musk has made some major mistakes like over complication of the X model. No need to get too crazy with it as it would have sold as well less the doors and windshield over the roof. Just make it a taller longer S model and leave off the show boating. 

The Three is not going to be on time nor as cheap as they claim buy the time it reaches market. It will sell well but will it make money at the lower price? They already are not making money on the S as it is. While others can live on their ICE models Tesla can't. Imagine if they has offered a Gas model along with the Electric the volume they could  have had. 

The problem is we do not have a answer to all the energy issues. Solar is not going to do it all nor is wind alone. It is an issue that will take all forms and continued development for years to come. You can ban Coal but it will only drive up cost of energy for the average person and not fix the lack of energy we will face soon. Water is the most viable but we don't have enough dams and water to pull that off. 

Yes the DOD comes up with things but the Space program is your best return on the dollar. Just look at the Saturn program and what we got from it. This is why China is now going to space and why the Russians never left it. Their issues have been they had very little private industry to draw from like we did and today China has that and will also steal anything not tied down if needed. 

Either way I want Tesla to make it as a failure would set back the entire EV programs for many companies in the public eye. They can do as much or more damage failing than success if they make it to the entire segment. 

The next 5- 10 years will be telling in the industry on who is making the right moves as the looming CAFE is coming and will not go away. Those making the right moves will be ok but other will struggle, Development cost today are as high as ever and will only get worse. We will see more failure and more partnering for survival. 

^ +1

Hey Rougeriver...thanx for the HNIC nod...

This year....so much for Hockey Night in Canada, eh?

With that being said, I want the Saint-Louis Blues to win the Stanley Cup this year!

And I much a appreciated  your story about your dad and Habs Great #9.

I got my own story about Maurice to share.

Sometime in the early 1990s, before the old Montreal Forum was dismantled, I was walking in front of it with my then girlfriend...she was a fresh conquest. When we reached the front doors, and who was walking out? 

Yup...Mr. Maurice Richard...

My girlfriend and I stopped to let the old gentleman walk by as I stood, speechless and in awe, when finally words came out of my mouth.

I shouted to her:

"DO YOU KNOW WHO THAT IS?"

"No." she replied coldly.

"NO???!!!" I barked back.

"He is MAURICE RICHARD!!! Just THE best hockey player to EVER PLAY THE GAME!!!"

He heard me say that to her. He looked at me, smiled at me ever so slightly, tipped his fedora hat at me and continued on his merry way.

A couple of years later, the Habs move their house to a brand new location and building, and he passes away. Im still saddened by that last part.

PS: I loved your pocket rocket reference!!!

PSS: Detroit has a great #9 of their own.

I dont have any stories about Mr. Hockey to share, but I do know he is extremely sick. For awhile now. He is still getting those Gordie Howe hat tricks....

1 goal.

1 assist.

1 fight.

Continue fighting Mr. Howe!!!

Tesla Blog has some amazing reading and insight into how the company is being run. While clearly this is a response to a lawsuit that Tesla was dismissed from as not being responsible for, it is interesting reading and clearly shows Tesla cares.

I hope they do continue long term either as a stand alone company or as a division in one but continues to make their outstanding EV products.

Tesla Response to Mercury News Story: Here

Tesla Hepa Bio Hazard Filter Blog: Here

Have to say that the more I read on this filter system, the more I hope other auto companies follow their lead with a superior air cabin filter system. I really like this.