Daimler Stopping Development of Future Internal Combustion Engines

Insanity apparently still running rampant at Daimler Benz. I think there's going to be a solid place for the ICE far into the future, at least 25 or 30 years, running alongside with the EV of course. I've worked in the EVSE industry for Blink here in AZ and it's been a very slow adoption for the masses. Battery tech. is getting better and charge times are down, but the harder you slam the batteries with high power like a Level 3 station or a very high amperage Level 2, it dramatically reduces the battery life and causes a lot of heat that needs to be controlled to protect the batteries. ICE in the U.S. are very clean running now days and if there's any glitch in the catalyst the OBD-II throws a code and lights up your dash so it's pretty well controlled.  

Well look how long the Buick 3.8 liter ran.... they just kept making updates to it without changing the engine family.  I'd wager that's what Benz is going to be doing. 

The 48 volt mild hybrid V8, Inline 6 and inline 4 are new engines, most models don't even have them yet.   So you figure this is a fresh engine line, the 4.0 V8 has been around a few years, but has a 2020 MY update.  The I-6 launched in 2019. That engine line with little tweaks and upgrades can get them to 2030.  By then they will have an all EV line up I would imagine.

7 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

The 48 volt mild hybrid V8, Inline 6 and inline 4 are new engines, most models don't even have them yet.   So you figure this is a fresh engine line, the 4.0 V8 has been around a few years, but has a 2020 MY update.  The I-6 launched in 2019. That engine line with little tweaks and upgrades can get them to 2030.  By then they will have an all EV line up I would imagine.

Definitely.... with the engine lines that just came out, they'll have 10 to 15 years of ICE.  And if they need to, they can just keep increasing the amount of power that comes from electric and decreasing the ICE size (instead of an I6 lite hybrid, an I4 hybrid with a stronger EV component) 

I wonder if that's not precisely how Daimler plans to force people into their EVs, by eroding the IC's.

1 hour ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Definitely.... with the engine lines that just came out, they'll have 10 to 15 years of ICE.  And if they need to, they can just keep increasing the amount of power that comes from electric and decreasing the ICE size (instead of an I6 lite hybrid, an I4 hybrid with a stronger EV component) 

About 10-12 years is what they get from an engine, and that usually involves some overhauls along the way.  They could go to  a turbo 4 with more electric power, but I feel like in 10 years they'll have the batteries figured out and no one is going to want a n ICE when you can just get any amount of power you want from an electric, with more cabin space and less maintenance.  Wouldn't surprise me if the whole Mercedes line was electric only in 2030.

Ready for every model's MSRP to double? C-class EV : $82,000 ??

4 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

About 10-12 years is what they get from an engine, and that usually involves some overhauls along the way.  They could go to  a turbo 4 with more electric power, but I feel like in 10 years they'll have the batteries figured out and no one is going to want a n ICE when you can just get any amount of power you want from an electric, with more cabin space and less maintenance.  Wouldn't surprise me if the whole Mercedes line was electric only in 2030.

C&G will be 32 years old by then, well be able to come back and see

1 minute ago, balthazar said:

Ready for every model's MSRP to double? C-class EV : $82,000 ??

No necessarily. Costs will come down. The already are.

2 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

C&G will be 32 years old by then, well be able to come back and see

No necessarily. Costs will come down. The already are.

Battery costs have already come down from even just 5 years ago with latest tech. in the chemical compositions, so it really comes down to the precious metals in the Li-ion cells and traction motors.

Cadillac has already announced back in January that they will have an EV flagship SUV on the new GM BEV3 architecture within the next 3 or 4 years , but they know the cash cow ICE models like Escalade sell too well to walk away entirely anytime soon. The future of the automobile will be very interesting for sure.     

This isn't as shocking as some may think.  For anyone who follows the recent advancement in EV's, batteries, and solar PV power, the writing is on the wall for the death of the ICE.  

About half a decade ago, I'd have balked at that statement, but things can change in 5 years.  Especially the past 5 years.  

Sure, there will still be ICE engines sold 5 or 10 years from now.  But those will be holdout projects, sold to people where the infrastructure, OR corporate interference in has made a changeover implausible.   

Look at the numbers.

11 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

No necessarily. Costs will come down. The already are.

When does that ever transition to the consumer? 

2 hours ago, balthazar said:

Look at the numbers.

I"m guessing the people at benz are smarter about this than anyone on this message board. 

1 hour ago, ccap41 said:

When does that ever transition to the consumer? 

It already has in the form of range increases without cost increases. When the leaf came out, it only had about 100 mile range. The bolt was released at about the same price as the leaf, but had a 235 mile range. GM just increased the range of the bolt again with no increase to price. 

Since charging costs are nearly unilaterally ignored, and MPG increases in IC vehicles really never had a direct correlation to MSRP, I question the equivalency of 20 more miles of range (Bolt) being a ‘cost reduction’.

15 hours ago, USA-1 Vortec 6.2 said:

Insanity apparently still running rampant at Daimler Benz. I think there's going to be a solid place for the ICE far into the future, at least 25 or 30 years, running alongside with the EV of course. I've worked in the EVSE industry for Blink here in AZ and it's been a very slow adoption for the masses. Battery tech. is getting better and charge times are down, but the harder you slam the batteries with high power like a Level 3 station or a very high amperage Level 2, it dramatically reduces the battery life and causes a lot of heat that needs to be controlled to protect the batteries. ICE in the U.S. are very clean running now days and if there's any glitch in the catalyst the OBD-II throws a code and lights up your dash so it's pretty well controlled.  

I will state that I disagree with you and the flip to EV will happen faster than the flip from horse and buggy to ICE. With the introduction of various fast charging solid state batteries and tech such as the story below that removes the heat and explosion issue along with the early death of current Li Ion batteries, we will see the move faster than people are expecting. 

Yes some categories such as long haul trucking will be ICE for the next 25 to 50 years, but inner city to suburban will flip much faster once an assortment of auto's are out.

This tech also is in beta testing with auto companies and I expect this will be a big game changer along with the solid state dry material info I posted above.

WRT my comment toward miradart; the stated implication that EVs are going to have 90-95% of the market in “5” years is ridiculous & unsupportable.

5 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Since charging costs are nearly unilaterally ignored, and MPG increases in IC vehicles really never had a direct correlation to MSRP, I question the equivalency of 20 more miles of range (Bolt) being a ‘cost reduction’.

20 miles, no... but going from Leaf to Bolt for the same price... that's over 100 miles? That's a cost reduction.

1 minute ago, dfelt said:

I will state that I disagree with you and the flip to EV will happen faster than the flip from horse and buggy to ICE.

Let’s quantify that; how long DID it take to move to autos from horses, exactly?

Because a ton of the general commentary I’ve read acts like the 1997 hybrid electric prius hasn’t had a 23-yr run to date and EVs were unveiled for the first time the day before said commentary was made.

Look at the market share of hybrid electrics and electrics over the past 20 years thru 2019.

1 minute ago, Drew Dowdell said:

20 miles, no... but going from Leaf to Bolt for the same price... that's over 100 miles? That's a cost reduction.

An OPERATING cost reduction, not a purchase cost reduction.

4 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Let’s quantify that; how long DID it take to move to autos from horses, exactly?

Because a ton of the general commentary I’ve read acts like the 1997 hybrid electric prius hasn’t had a 23-yr run to date and EVs were unveiled for the first time the day before said commentary was made.

Look at the market share of hybrid electrics and electrics over the past 20 years thru 2019.

I get the point your making but Prius did not inspire the bulk of the public and so a tight, ugly little hybrid like their product line was not going to change things fast.

Yet with all OEMs bringing out EVs to their standard lineup, I see a change over happening much faster for the EVs than Hybrids, etc.

As stated here by you, me, and many others, most buyers do not care what is under the hood. 

If they have a 300 to 400 mile range, like the interior and the over all price is in their budget, they will buy and change habits to plugging in at home and having a full battery pack every morning.

19 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Let’s quantify that; how long DID it take to move to autos from horses, exactly?

Because a ton of the general commentary I’ve read acts like the 1997 hybrid electric prius hasn’t had a 23-yr run to date and EVs were unveiled for the first time the day before said commentary was made.

Look at the market share of hybrid electrics and electrics over the past 20 years thru 2019.

An OPERATING cost reduction, not a purchase cost reduction.

Sure it is a purchasing cost reduction.  Until the Bolt was made, $30ish thousand dollars got you 100ish miles of range.  Once the Bolt was released, $30ish thousand dollars got you 235 miles of range.  Prior to that, to get over 200 miles of range cost around $60ish k.

Putting it another way... if the Silverado 2500 were suddenly the same price as a 1500, that is a big cost reduction.

And Range doesn't effect operating costs any more than a bigger gas tank does.  If you're getting X miles out of Y amount of juice, it doesn't cost you less just because you fill up less often. 

Well price has always been a market problem, with no signs of abating in the near future. But I disagree that it being electric is of no consequence; EVs are always compared straight to other EVs, and situations such as saying the $154K Taycan is going to compete w the $81K Model S pretty much proves that. Recall all the pieces comparing the Model 3 to the Bolt?

5 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Sure it is a purchasing cost reduction.  Until the Bolt was made, $30ish thousand dollars got you 100ish miles of range.  Once the Bolt was released, $30ish thousand dollars got you 235 miles of range.  Prior to that, to get over 200 miles of range cost around $60ish k.

Not if you bought a IC vehicle.

47 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

It already has in the form of range increases without cost increases. When the leaf came out, it only had about 100 mile range. The bolt was released at about the same price as the leaf, but had a 235 mile range. GM just increased the range of the bolt again with no increase to price. 

So the answer was, "no"...

I can't wait for my $50,000 car to have 1000 miles of range!  

46 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Since charging costs are nearly unilaterally ignored, and MPG increases in IC vehicles really never had a direct correlation to MSRP, I question the equivalency of 20 more miles of range (Bolt) being a ‘cost reduction’.

Exactly right. I know for a fact that GM (as well as other manufacturers I would hope) always has more range left in the packs, but electronically limits it to either have more available in new MY vehicles to woo the consumer or to release more in a specific vehicle as other battery cells start to die. So there's no new cost in it for them, the consumer already paid for it when they bought the car. Same story for ICE vehicles of course. 

14 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

So the answer was, "no"...

I can't wait for my $50,000 car to have 1000 miles of range!  

Getting more for your money is not a price reduction?

Okay, forget the Leaf.  Before the Bolt, it cost you $60ish k to get over 235 miles of range. After the Bolt it cost you $30ish K. That's a price reduction.

How about another example? I have an old iPod sitting here with 64gb of memory that originally cost about $400. Now you can get one with 256gb for $400... that is a reduction in price.

No, because you're still stuck spending a relatively absurd amount of money for essentially the same thing. 

I'd argue the ipod/phone thing in that all of the software, saved images, music are so much larger you NEED a larger capacity to do the same job. 

I think it is a perception of a lower price but not actually lower. 

I'd argue more the time value of money makes them lower priced more than anything else. If a $400 iPod 10 years ago vs $400 one today, after inflation, it costs us a less percentage of money(assuming salary only goes up with the rate of inflation with no promotions, etc. ). 

This only sets up the legitimacy of a price increase for EVERY improvement on a vehicle, bar none. Compared to the Model T, the cheapest 2020 vehicle should be $498,000. 

55 minutes ago, dfelt said:

I will state that I disagree with you and the flip to EV will happen faster than the flip from horse and buggy to ICE. With the introduction of various fast charging solid state batteries and tech such as the story below that removes the heat and explosion issue along with the early death of current Li Ion batteries, we will see the move faster than people are expecting. 

Yes some categories such as long haul trucking will be ICE for the next 25 to 50 years, but inner city to suburban will flip much faster once an assortment of auto's are out.

This tech also is in beta testing with auto companies and I expect this will be a big game changer along with the solid state dry material info I posted above.

 

I just got a good laugh out of you comparing the change from Horse and Buggy to ICE and ICE to EV, that's a stretch man. Like I stated above I've worked right in the middle of the EV and EVSE industry just 4 years ago and talked directly with consumers and companies about EV charging stations. It has taken MUCH longer for the industry to move from ICE to full EV's than industry analysts or the auto manufacturers thought. In 2015 they were saying that more than 10% of the cars out there would be EV by 2020 and as of 2018 it's only just over 2%. Battery tech has made great strides, but for consumers to grasp the change we definitely still have a lot of catching up to do with regards to charging times and we still need a lot more EVSE infrastructure to go in to handle the EV cars that will be out there. I actually had a Volt to drive as a company car and it had pretty impressive performance and I really liked the EREV setup over the pure EV like the Leafs we also had. If you're low on a charge you just went to the gas station to fill up the 9 gal tank and you were on your way with 250 instant miles of driving in less than 5 min. if on a trip or even on the way home. The best scenario for the most range was, if on the Hwy/Fwy Hold mode ran the I4 gas engine that would spin the generator to run the traction motors or if in the city Tour or Sport mode would run the motors with just the batteries, when at Hwy speed the batteries would deplete rather quickly so the gas engine had the better range than the batteries, I was averaging 51 mpg combined when I gave it back. I wish GM would have stuck with the Voltec platform as an option it really is the best of both worlds, but they never marketed the Volt very well at all. The Bolt has pretty good range for the money, but it's too small for people like me (6'3") but still better looking than the fugly Prius.    

9 hours ago, Miradart said:

This isn't as shocking as some may think.  For anyone who follows the recent advancement in EV's, batteries, and solar PV power, the writing is on the wall for the death of the ICE.  

About half a decade ago, I'd have balked at that statement, but things can change in 5 years.  Especially the past 5 years.  

Sure, there will still be ICE engines sold 5 or 10 years from now.  But those will be holdout projects, sold to people where the infrastructure, OR corporate interference in has made a changeover implausible.   

I've worked directly in the EVSE industry just 4 years ago and the industry thought that we would be much further in on the EV. Industry analyst's and the auto manufacturers predicted 10+% by 2020 and we are only just over 2% of cars out there being EV's as of the end of 2018 with it really hatching in 2011 with the Volt and Leaf. ICE vehicles will be around well into the foreseeable future. I know baby boomers like my parents, aunts and uncles are not ready for them to go away and move to an EV. 

17 minutes ago, USA-1 Vortec 6.2 said:

I just got a good laugh out of you comparing the change from Horse and Buggy to ICE and ICE to EV, that's a stretch man. Like I stated above I've worked right in the middle of the EV and EVSE industry just 4 years ago and talked directly with consumers and companies about EV charging stations. It has taken MUCH longer for the industry to move from ICE to full EV's than industry analysts or the auto manufacturers thought. In 2015 they were saying that more than 10% of the cars out there would be EV by 2020 and as of 2018 it's only just over 2%. Battery tech has made great strides, but for consumers to grasp the change we definitely still have a lot of catching up to do with regards to charging times and we still need a lot more EVSE infrastructure to go in to handle the EV cars that will be out there. I actually had a Volt to drive as a company car and it had pretty impressive performance and I really liked the EREV setup over the pure EV like the Leafs we also had. If you're low on a charge you just went to the gas station to fill up the 9 gal tank and you were on your way with 250 instant miles of driving in less than 5 min. if on a trip or even on the way home. The best scenario for the most range was, if on the Hwy/Fwy Hold mode ran the I4 gas engine that would spin the generator to run the traction motors or if in the city Tour or Sport mode would run the motors with just the batteries, when at Hwy speed the batteries would deplete rather quickly so the gas engine had the better range than the batteries, I was averaging 51 mpg combined when I gave it back. I wish GM would have stuck with the Voltec platform as an option it really is the best of both worlds, but they never marketed the Volt very well at all. The Bolt has pretty good range for the money, but it's too small for people like me (6'3") but still better looking than the fugly Prius.    

@dfelt Also, the Chevy Cruze and the Volt were built on the same platform so comparing the time from ICE to EV with Horse and Buggy to ICE is not even close to the same.  

Horse: live animal that must be tended to, fed, housed, has very finite use cycle/ lifespan.

IC vehicle: machine that sits in your parking spot, turns on when you press button, takes you & some packages some place at you discretion.

EV vehicle: machine that sits in your parking spot, turns on when you press button, takes you & some packages some place at you discretion

Reality is complex. 

6 minutes ago, USA-1 Vortec 6.2 said:

I've worked directly in the EVSE industry just 4 years ago and the industry thought that we would be much further in on the EV. Industry analyst's and the auto manufacturers predicted 10+% by 2020 and we are only just over 2% of cars out there being EV's as of the end of 2018 with it really hatching in 2011 with the Volt and Leaf. ICE vehicles will be around well into the foreseeable future. I know baby boomers like my parents, aunts and uncles are not ready for them to go away and move to an EV. 

You could be right.  But think back to 10 or maybe 15 years ago.  What did our mobile phones look like, and what could we do with them?  Granted, the buy-in is substantially different.  But between a 6 minute recharge on the horizon,  and EV charging stations now popping up all over, I could expect the transition to come quite quickly, once it really gets going.  

Even in Canada, PetroCanada is just now advertising that they have a coast-to-coast EV charging now available along the Trans Canada Highway.  That's 4800 miles.  So, It's safe to say that things are picking up speed.

At the end of the day, there are many of the old barriers to EV ownership that are falling to the wayside.  I guess time will tell when the 'real' jump comes.  

'Granny, and uncle Ned' may never change, but I don't think that is a surprise to anyone.  Older folks often aren't willing to jump on new things, no matter how much better it might be.  But I don't think that that is where the market shift will happen anyways.  It will be to middle age, and younger buyers.  Once a useful EV truck, or SUV comes along, I could see things changing very quickly.

We may have ICE for the 'foreseeable' future, but that largely depends on how far down the road 'foreseeable' describes.  All I know is that I can see its end from where I stand.  But as the old car ads used to say, "Mileage may vary"    

An EV isn’t a new thing, it’s the same thing only the mechanics (that 95% of owners never deal with) are different. While it’s true people are creatures of habit, the tangibles to an EV car aren’t the mechanicals but range ?s, charging location/time ?s, and purchase cost questions. Some very well may be waiting for a particular vehicle type, but cost is the number 1 factor. If a [Bolt] cost what a [Sonic] cost, their sales would likely be on par.

3 hours ago, USA-1 Vortec 6.2 said:

I've worked directly in the EVSE industry just 4 years ago and the industry thought that we would be much further in on the EV. Industry analyst's and the auto manufacturers predicted 10+% by 2020 and we are only just over 2% of cars out there being EV's as of the end of 2018 with it really hatching in 2011 with the Volt and Leaf. ICE vehicles will be around well into the foreseeable future. I know baby boomers like my parents, aunts and uncles are not ready for them to go away and move to an EV. 

Yet where you live and the support and messaging directly relates to the sales and common use of EVs. For me living on the West Coast, specifically Washington state, EVs are a common thing every day and with the Electric super highway that was built from Vancover BC to Baja California, getting around in an EV is very easy.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1114242_these-six-states-have-the-highest-electric-car-adoption-rates-in-the-country

As you can see being one of the top 6 states that does support and have an extensive EV charging infrastructure, you end up with many people buying EVs. Once Rivian is truly producing and Ford / GM has their full size SUV/Trucks out in EV form, I expect sales to really take off over the small cracker jack box EVs we currently have.

https://www.cheatsheet.com/money-career/these-states-are-buying-the-most-green-cars-in-america.html/

This story clearly supports the one above even though they are independant researched articles.

https://evadoption.com/ev-market-share/ev-market-share-california/

This puts the current state into perspective since many are visual people.

To add to this, in 2030, China and big chunks of the EU may ban ICE vehicles for sale.  So given that those are Mercedes 2 biggest markets, it would make sense that they have a full EV line post 2030.   12 years ago was iPhone 1, 14 years ago was the launch of You Tube.  A lot can happen in 10-15 years.  If Daimler pours R&D dollars into electric cars they can get that battery cost down, they can probably reduce warranty costs and build/design complexity, there may be other areas to pick up savings when the economies of scale kick in.

Blink Network, one of the largest EVSE networks in the country that's owned by Car Charging Group, Inc. out of Miami Beach, FL is based right here in Phoenix, there's an over saturation of charging stations and many don't get used, but there's plenty of support and infrastructure for EV's here. Ecotality/Blink Network that went bankrupt in 2013 was purchased by CCGI for $3.3M in the same year. Ecotality was one of the original EVSE manufacturer/networks that teamed up with ChargePoint and AeroVironment on the U.S. DOE EVSE project officially named "The EV Project" that was part of the AR&R Act of 2009 with a huge $99.9M investment by the DOE to get a Level 2 and Level 3 charging station infrastructure installed in 7 states that makes up 15,000 units.  I was just at the grocery store that has two operational Blink units and no cars were charging, and they hardly ever are anymore, but several ICE vehicles in the parking lot. So there's plenty of support here just no real public interest, yes I see a Model S and Model 3 here and there and a Bolt once in a while, but just no real wide spread interest. Part of the problem with the lack of interest is the Summer heat here in the beautiful Sonoran Desert that wears heavy on the batteries which also quickly kills the EV range. That will always be an issue here as well as in the super cold Winters of the Midwest and far NE of the U.S. A standard car battery that lasts 5 or 6 years in the NW only lasts about 3 years here in the Sonoran and the Li ion batteries feel it and get pretty hot when charging or discharging, hence the reason for on-board liquid cooling systems in the EV's, but sometimes it's just not enough or cheap models like the new Nissan Leaf still doesn't have liquid cooling for the batteries, which is absurd. All of this is why I say the ICE will live on for at least another 25 or 30 years and maybe even longer depending on consumers, if they sell the auto industry will build them.  

EVSE companies are kind of like the Solar Industry, very dependent on the U.S. government or private investment groups to try to make it. It's hard to make any real revenue on the network fees to even cover the electricity usage on the EVSE, we used to barely break even on the network fees even after we put together new contracts for the network after the Blink bankruptcy and subsequent purchase in 2013. There are several solar panels on houses everywhere here, but somehow the solar companies seem to end up bankrupt, Solyndra comes to mind. I'm just glad I got out when I did I know people who are still there and nothing has changed, they were designing a new commercial charging station that was shelved years ago and all of the EVSE companies still struggle to gain private funding.  

8 hours ago, Miradart said:

You could be right.  But think back to 10 or maybe 15 years ago.  What did our mobile phones look like, and what could we do with them?  Granted, the buy-in is substantially different.  But between a 6 minute recharge on the horizon,  and EV charging stations now popping up all over, I could expect the transition to come quite quickly, once it really gets going.  

Even in Canada, PetroCanada is just now advertising that they have a coast-to-coast EV charging now available along the Trans Canada Highway.  That's 4800 miles.  So, It's safe to say that things are picking up speed.

At the end of the day, there are many of the old barriers to EV ownership that are falling to the wayside.  I guess time will tell when the 'real' jump comes.  

'Granny, and uncle Ned' may never change, but I don't think that is a surprise to anyone.  Older folks often aren't willing to jump on new things, no matter how much better it might be.  But I don't think that that is where the market shift will happen anyways.  It will be to middle age, and younger buyers.  Once a useful EV truck, or SUV comes along, I could see things changing very quickly.

We may have ICE for the 'foreseeable' future, but that largely depends on how far down the road 'foreseeable' describes.  All I know is that I can see its end from where I stand.  But as the old car ads used to say, "Mileage may vary"    

Eh, you're Canadian we can't take you guys seriously ??

dfelt : Some strange metrics in the charts you posted, such as 'number of PEV registrations per capita', which actually makes the 'success' look much worse; 3.04 / 1000 is a 0.003% ratio. Nobody draws sales analysis on a metric like that, it has no correlation.

ICE engines and fossil fuels are going no where.  We might be switching cars that only do short travel to electric but for most of the US we will still need ICE engines.  Most countries including the US does not have the electrical grid to handle all the electric cars people think we need.  Solar and Wind are not cutting it.  In the US last year when we had the deep freeze for a week in the middle of winter all the wind and solar plants in the Midwest were offline.  they can't withstand that cold.  Also only produce less than 1% of the energy needed daily.  I'm good with Hybrid but a full electric transportation system in no where in the future of the US.