Jaguar's Big Gamble: All-Electric By 2025

Jaguar might as well go all electric because the sales of the gas powered cars stink.  Also it would be a waste of money to further develop their gas engines or to spend hundreds of millions on another XF or XJ or whatever.  Better to put 100% of their money into EV's and I suspect the gas power Land Rovers still on sale in 2029 will look a lot like the ones they have now, and will be ancient by then.

Also investors want to see EV's.  Investors are seeing gas cars as a negative.  Also why Tesla is worth more than the 7 largest car companies combined. If you don't do EV's you can't sell stock or get your stock price up, and that is what these CEO's care about.

Like a domino effect.

GM announces the shift to become  all out EV by a set date, and the rest of the industry follows suit.

I expect others to start announcing their roll out plans to end their ICE vehicles by a set date and become all EV in the next weeks...

33 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

Like a domino effect.

GM announces the shift to become  all out EV by a set date, and the rest of the industry follows suit.

I expect others to start announcing their roll out plans to end their ICE vehicles by a set date and become all EV in the next weeks...

 

Everyone has announced that.  They all have to do it because investors want it.   And there is probably some fear about being late to the party, because if you miss out on the EV train your company is basically out of business.

Topically : it was just announced that Daimler’s not going to sell the EQE in the US.

EQC, but that was kind of half baked I think anyway.  EQS and EQE are made on a Tesla like chassis while EQA EQB and EQC are batteries put in an ICE platform.  They have an EQE SUV in the works but these Mercedes Electric vehicles better be good and have 1,000 hp AMG versions, otherwise Tesla will surpass them like they just surpassed Audi last year (in the USA).

Why are they still half-assing it? Don't they realize that

2 hours ago, smk4565 said:

if you miss out on the EV train your company is basically out of business.

55 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

otherwise Tesla will surpass them

It's Mercedes that MUST surpass Tesla, not the other way around.

10 hours ago, balthazar said:

Topically : it was just announced that Daimler’s not going to sell the EQE in the US.

I think you mean the EQC, the electric crossover. I was considering writing up that story, but the JLR story I felt was more pressing. 

I don't know why this model was canned for the U.S. for the time being, sales not doing so well in other parts?

3 hours ago, William Maley said:

I think you mean the EQC, the electric crossover. I was considering writing up that story, but the JLR story I felt was more pressing. 

I don't know why this model was canned for the U.S. for the time being, sales not doing so well in other parts?

As SMK said... it's just batteries in what used to be an ICE vehicle.  They're probably looking to move it to a dedicated EV platform instead.  Huge cost efficiencies in doing that. Huge.

13 hours ago, balthazar said:

Why are they still half-assing it? Don't they realize that

 

It's Mercedes that MUST surpass Tesla, not the other way around.

Sales wise I mean.  Tesla is #4 in sales for premium brands in the USA.

The EQE and EQS aren’t half assed, they even built a new factory just for them and the S-class.  EQC was half assed.

That was my point in going off your definition- why is the eqc half-assed? And if YOU say it is, it must be akin to a ‘99 hyundai pony.

Well, at this point they don’t have much to lose.....

At this point, Jaguar really doesnt have much choice either. 

The industry as a whole is going ALL EV because  PLANET EARTH as a whole is going ALL EV. 

On 2/15/2021 at 8:46 PM, smk4565 said:

Jaguar might as well go all electric because the sales of the gas powered cars stink.

Jag is going to cut it's sales by 90%.

Not if they can engineer and produce an EV that rivals and surpasses Tesla. Quality and tech wise. As of now, Jag's quality is better than Tesla's? 

And even of their EVs wont surpass those of Tesla, all they have to do is make better EVs and prettier ones than the rest of the OEMs and they will be fine. 

EVs are the future whether we like that scenario or not....

How have they done by engineering & producing an IC vehicle that surpasses the segment leaders in quality, tech & prettiness?

As far as prettier EV cars go, Jaguar wins over Tesla, Porsche, Mercedes, BMW.  The Taycan is cool and all, but its styling lends itself to be outdated shortly.  The EV Macan is ugly. The iPace is waaaay prettier. 

Audi EVs, closely resemble their Porsche counterparts, and are prettier IMO. 

Mercedes and BMWs are ugly AF. Uglier than what some Tesla haterz considers Tesla EVs as ugly. 

Ford's Mach E surpasses anything anybody out there is doing with EVs styling wise.

The Lucid Air is awesome looking. 

GM has some nice renderings of their future EVs and Buick's EVs in China look smashing!

GM IMO has the tech to rival and surpass Tesla. GM and what it seems even Ford. 

Jaguar has to up their EV tech game.  The Germans are waaaay behind Tesla. 

Jag has a chance to not only survive, but to excel in this new age.

But to answer your question:

The last time Jag led in those departments were in the 1960s.  A loooong time ago. Before I was born.   Maybe not so much in the reliability department...ever. 

The German's reliability hasnt hurt them though.  THAT means Jag has a chance in the EV future...

Jag has a LONG track record of fledgling survival, I don't expect that to change regardless; it will remain a struggling niche brand (IC or EV). 

Fair enough.  I cant really argue Jag's track record. 

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

Jag is going to cut it's sales by 90%.

So from 100 cars sold a year, to 10?

I think I saw they sold 5400 I-paces globally in the first half of ‘20. That was like 40% lower than '19, but : 2020.

I can see a case for a major conglomerate to hedge it's bet and intro some well-done EVs, because they have the fall-back of successful/profitable ICs doing all the heavy (financial) lifting. But when you barely eek out any volume and you dive head-first into a segment that's 2-4% of the global sales, you're going to funnel your volume thru that same constricted portal.

Sure, I expect EV market share to grow. Maybe 2% a year into the foreseeable future. So by 2035 (14 years), the natural current of the consumer market should be around a 30% take rate on EVs. By extrapolation, that'd be a 70% reduction in a brand's current volume. Some brands will not survive that.

4 hours ago, balthazar said:

Jag is going to cut it's sales by 90%.

Moving to EV won't cause a drop in sales, building bad cars will.  

Electric propulsion is superior to a gasoline drivetrain.  Going EV is the right move, but all their competitors will also, so I don't see what changes for Jaguar.  The Germans will still build better cars than them.

There are pluses and minuses to BE vehicles, of course. Chief among them- price.

2 hours ago, balthazar said:

I think I saw they sold 5400 I-paces globally in the first half of ‘20. That was like 40% lower than '19, but : 2020.

I can see a case for a major conglomerate to hedge it's bet and intro some well-done EVs, because they have the fall-back of successful/profitable ICs doing all the heavy (financial) lifting. But when you barely eek out any volume and you dive head-first into a segment that's 2-4% of the global sales, you're going to funnel your volume thru that same constricted portal.

Sure, I expect EV market share to grow. Maybe 2% a year into the foreseeable future. So by 2035 (14 years), the natural current of the consumer market should be around a 30% take rate on EVs. By extrapolation, that'd be a 70% reduction in a brand's current volume. Some brands will not survive that.

But JLR can't spend R&D dollars on ICE and EV at the same time, they don't have the money to do that.  

I have also seen estimates that EV will be over 50% market share by 2030.  I suspect there won't be a gas powered luxury car in 2030, unless it is like an Acura/Lincoln badge job car.  The gas engine can't match the NVH and silent operation off an EV.  Also on performance take any V12 super car and it can't match a Tesla.  And EV technology is only getting better while emissions restrictions and CAFE are killing V12s and V8s.

BE's take a LOT less R&D, right? 

30 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

have also seen estimates that EV will be over 50% market share by 2030.

Reality disconnect / wishful thinking; we're halfway thru the '21 MY already.

Market share now is below 2% in the U.S., 4% globally, and peaked in 2018. Never see that kind of market penetration that quickly (8.5 years).

Consumers aren't interested in suddenly paying 50%more for their next vehicle. That's FAR more significant & real than a drag strip time.
 

2 hours ago, balthazar said:

BE's take a LOT less R&D, right? 

Reality disconnect / wishful thinking; we're halfway thru the '21 MY already.

Market share now is below 2% in the U.S., 4% globally, and peaked in 2018. Never see that kind of market penetration that quickly (8.5 years).

Consumers aren't interested in suddenly paying 50%more for their next vehicle. That's FAR more significant & real than a drag strip time.
 

Not 50% more, prices will level off and be pretty similar.  

^ What's your evidence for that theory?

2021 Kona EV MSRP is 82% higher than the IC version.
EQS is expected to be 35% higher than the GLS.

IMO, "pretty similar" had better be no more than around 7% higher than IC to be legitimately 'pretty similar'.

16 hours ago, balthazar said:

BE's take a LOT less R&D, right? 

 

BEs take a lot more R&D investment, I would think..esp. for the batteries...  ICE R&D should be pretty low since they have been around forever...

13 hours ago, balthazar said:

^ What's your evidence for that theory?

2021 Kona EV MSRP is 82% higher than the IC version.
EQS is expected to be 35% higher than the GLS.

IMO, "pretty similar" had better be no more than around 7% higher than IC to be legitimately 'pretty similar'.

The Bolt just had a price drop.  Tesla cut prices too.  Battery tech improvements will help get battery cost down.  There will be R&D and production cost savings when there is a scalable EV platform that can be used for everything from a Corvette to a Suburban, you just modify the size of the same design.  In 2030 EV’s won’t have as bad as a price gap to ICE.  And for luxury cars it won’t be noticeable.  Jaguars cost Tesla money right now and offer less performance.

Bolt did have a significant price drop; now it's $32K whereas the car it most closely approximates, the Sonic, was $18K. Not close.

Tesla didn't lower prices; it shifted a grand from the base model to the performance trim Model 3. Base is still above the 6-month-only $35K offering last year. Model S is up about $12 grand from its debut. 

Rivian is coming in at a start of $70 or $75K, whereas the big 4 start in the upper $30s.

We've been hearing about 'cheaper battery costs' for years. The gaps are still huge. Remember, we need price parity with similar IC vehicles to see mass change-over, not dribs & drabs.

The 'scalable BE platform' is exactly what many folk have railed against vehemently with "too much parts sharing" and "model A is the same as model B" - that's only going to denigrate future BE's as 'rebadges' in many folk's minds.

As far as luxury brands go- all the growth there is in the cheap entry-level models; the limited take upper models won't be affected much... but they don't have nearly the volume.

4 minutes ago, balthazar said:

 
The 'scalable BE platform' is exactly what many folk have railed against vehemently with "too much parts sharing" and "model A is the same as model B" - that's only going to denigrate future BE's as 'rebadges' in many folk's minds. 

That's no different from the approach used for decades by companies like GM (or any major automaker, for that matter) that have a broad range of ICE models, though.  Platform and component sharing is not necessarily 'rebadging'...

^ No, it's not... but the same folk who railed against such economical practices will likely have the same issue with a 'one-size fits all models' platform under BE's. Just pointing that out; I don't have a problem with it, per say.

Im excited to see these platforms come to life. Im excited to see what new forms of vehicles engineers and car designers could come up with.  IF the new generation of "drivers" are as enthusiastic about cars as we are and WANT different cars to DRIVE and NOT be what I think they will be...just mindless dolts not caring about what they are driving and be seen driven in...to which these new platforms will just be shytty isolation pods...

Like SMK just said.  From Corvettes to panel trucks ALL on the same scalable platform. The sheet metal changes. There will NOT be ANY confinement due to an engine and transmission and all that "old" tech that comes with ICE taking up that space.  The electric motors and batteries are all tucked away from the passenger compartment freeing up all the real estate in the cabin, and the exterior dimensions, well, the designers could go wild...

But...like I said...all the space gained in the cabin, and the mindless dolts would probably prefer to brush their teeth and brew their coffee in that shytty isolation pod  on the way to work...

GM's Hy-Wire  at the turn of this century

To what Peugeot took to the next level 20 years later.   On a skate platform.  With today's tech and vision

BEVs still require huge R & D costs. I'm all for electric drive trains. However, BEVs are not ready for prime time for most that aren't early adopters without heavy mandates or incentives.

In the real world thru 2030, we are just going to get plug in hybrids with some dedicated all-electric BEVs for compliance markets like California or Norway. Jaguar is niche enough to make this full BEV gamble with a bigger upside in the short run. We'll see if Toyota, Honda, & Hyundai's gamble with fuel cell EVs is wiser. 

We still haven't seen the Oil & Gas Industry's play to decarbonize transportation and energy. My money in on ammonia fuel cell EVs. Hydronitrogen fuels like ammonia are going to replace every single hydrocarbon fuel in our energy system in a potentially rapid timescale. With large scale national infrastructure and Ammonia prices per gallon on par with gasoline and diesel, it's just a matter of when. 

On 2/20/2021 at 1:40 PM, balthazar said:

I think I saw they sold 5400 I-paces globally in the first half of ‘20. That was like 40% lower than '19, but : 2020.

I can see a case for a major conglomerate to hedge it's bet and intro some well-done EVs, because they have the fall-back of successful/profitable ICs doing all the heavy (financial) lifting. But when you barely eek out any volume and you dive head-first into a segment that's 2-4% of the global sales, you're going to funnel your volume thru that same constricted portal.

Sure, I expect EV market share to grow. Maybe 2% a year into the foreseeable future. So by 2035 (14 years), the natural current of the consumer market should be around a 30% take rate on EVs. By extrapolation, that'd be a 70% reduction in a brand's current volume. Some brands will not survive that.

It's a rapidly growing segment but, EVs are still largely cannibalizing hybrid sales and performance luxury sales. Many Tesla owners are would be Prius, Lexus hybrid,MB AMG,or BMW M buyers.

I think 30% EV market share may be pushing it without seeing how the market reacts to the diversification of the EV market. If the new entries build sales for the segment 30% could be right on target. I'm thinking more like 10% with half of the new cars being hybrids or BEVs in 2035.