The Big Electric Car Blitz

Hello Bloomberg, this is the chicken or egg issue of chargers and auto choices. With Choices sales and profits will come. Trust me it will!  

Agreed.  Will people buy them?  Yes.  Will car companies make money on them?  Yes.

1 hour ago, William Maley said:

...somehow selling vehicles like hotcakes.

...made up less than one percent of the U.S. market.

 

Those are some tiny, cold, unwanted hotcakes...

ah, where is all the cheap batteries and national convenient network of charging stations to go with it?

2 hours ago, regfootball said:

ah, where is all the cheap batteries and national convenient network of charging stations to go with it?

Exxon Mobil, BP, Royal Dutch, Shell have all invested in Charging companies that make the equipment. On top of this, All have announced they are starting to install fast chargers at gas stations.

Shell is farther along than most but here is their fast charger station.

As I have said over and over, the West coast if much farther along than the rest of North America, yet just like the early 1900's where cars were being sold before gas stations were everywhere and before big profits could be made, Companies have to start somewhere.

OF course the they make money.....

More cars will help ease that production price down....

44 minutes ago, dfelt said:

Exxon Mobil, BP, Royal Dutch, Shell have all invested in Charging companies that make the equipment. On top of this, All have announced they are starting to install fast chargers at gas stations.

Shell is farther along than most but here is their fast charger station.

As I have said over and over, the West coast if much farther along than the rest of North America, yet just like the early 1900's where cars were being sold before gas stations were everywhere and before big profits could be made, Companies have to start somewhere.

Want one of those here....

3 minutes ago, daves87rs said:

Want one of those here....

The stations that have them here also have mini grocery stores / food courts with free WiFi, people stop, plug in and get a bit to eat, use the bathroom and get online to do who knows what, then out after they have charged for a while and off they go down the road.

Cost seems to be running between 20 to 35 cents per kWh compared to home charging at 6 cents per kWh. Over all still much cheaper than petrol prices.

The day EV car sales will explode will be when one of two things happens:  we see oil prices top $100 a barrel for more than a month OR EV prices are actually cheaper than their ICE counterparts.  If both happens at the same time, the switch to EV will be swift and thorough.  I would like to see OPEC (and their ill-gotten near-monopoly power) go the way of Studebaker since they have only caused problems for all of us since 1973..... and maybe take down the private oil majors down with them.

But that day may well be a long time coming though.

47 minutes ago, riviera74 said:

only caused problems for all of us since 1973.

Some people say that the US has caused a lot of problems for them in their homelands...(and not necessarily exclusively the OPEC countries...other countries...NATO countries...)  because of this oil...control...

I dont mean anything by this statement....just letting you know that there is always two sides to a coin...

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https://lecircuitelectrique.com/welcome

Quebec has a project where Hydro-Quebec has partnered with Quebec businesses to establish charging station circuits at their place of business....the consumer shops...his car charges...

at  hardware stores Reno-Depot and Rona

Grocery shopping at Metro grocery stores or eating at St-Hubert restaurants all across the province.

Or simply on a street or highway rest stop or at a shopping mall parking lot or government building of some sort.

We started off big...like in California...but the Parti-Quebecois was elected and stopped the Liberal Party of Quebec's progress on that ...but 3 years ago ago the Liberal Parti of Quebec got re-elected and so the project got another boost. We are fast catching up to the West Coast again and the people of Quebec are embracing all this...

For an everyday driver, I have no problem with going electric. So long as the range is there, and the price is competitive. I actually look forward to the VW Bus that is coming in a few years.

I could definitely get by with something like an eGolf as my commuter car, it has two days worth of mileage for me.  I just wish it had AWD.  My driveway faces south and is fairly inclined.  lots of melting on it in the winter that freezes by the time I get home in the evening and have to drive up it.

My next car purchase will very well be an electric car.

I currently own a 2012 bought new in 2012. Ill keep it at least for 10 years this one. We are now looking at 2022...I think many interesting options will be available to me by then.

Same thing for my wife's car. She owns a 2013. Bought new in 2013. We both dont put a lot of mileage on our cars so we will hold out a tad longer than 10 years if necessary to really see what the EV market will have in store for us in 2022, 2023, 2024 and beyond.

There is no itch for us to change our rides so soon in 2017 or 2018 or 2019...so we could wait and drive the current cars we own to the ground so we could make an EV purchase in the near future. A proper EV purchase with a maximized budget for one.

And if by chance in 2022, 2023, 2024 EVs or EV infrastructure or whatever still does not meet our needs (an unlikely event anyhow...in Quebec at least), we could still buy a regular car.

But...in Quebec, EV infrastructure is growing by leaps and bounds, the people are asking for it, and GM at a minimum,  already has interesting models in the pipe line to come out in the next couple of years if not for Tesla or Honda or VW...so...

I have stated it before and will state it again, we are living in interesting times. The EV Auto's are at the stage of ICE auto's at the start of the 1900's. As such the auto show circuit will be very interesting to see and watch over the next 3-5 years.

19 hours ago, dfelt said:

Exxon Mobil, BP, Royal Dutch, Shell have all invested in Charging companies that make the equipment. On top of this, All have announced they are starting to install fast chargers at gas stations.

Shell is farther along than most but here is their fast charger station.

As I have said over and over, the West coast if much farther along than the rest of North America, yet just like the early 1900's where cars were being sold before gas stations were everywhere and before big profits could be made, Companies have to start somewhere.

so basically the charge network is going to be funded buy the oil companies, see one monopoly end, take the cash and shove it into the new monopoly.

so we have to wait for them to realize that before we see charge stations and the investments to make them practical.

So today BEV is a small consumer demand because of cost and limitations.  What exactly will change by 2022?  I don't think cost will change much, and you will still have limitations.  I just don't expect demand will be in proportion to supply, which means automakers will have to discount them.  And next gen hybrids and PHEV's will be far more efficient, cheaper and with zero limitations. 

On 10/5/2017 at 11:56 PM, dfelt said:

The stations that have them here also have mini grocery stores / food courts with free WiFi, people stop, plug in and get a bit to eat, use the bathroom and get online to do who knows what, then out after they have charged for a while and off they go down the road.

Cost seems to be running between 20 to 35 cents per kWh compared to home charging at 6 cents per kWh. Over all still much cheaper than petrol prices.

6 cents / kWh?  That's impossibly low.... that doesn't include delivery?  Delivery alone is usually that much.  Typical commodity + delivery across the US is 12 cents / kWh (the reason I know this is because I've been researching cryptocurrency mining for a client).  At that price, 20 c/kWh isn't terrible for an on the road charge... even at 35 c/kWh it's a deal compared to buying bottled water v. bringing water from your tap at home. 

19 hours ago, Guest DetroitMuscle said:

So today BEV is a small consumer demand because of cost and limitations.  What exactly will change by 2022?  I don't think cost will change much, and you will still have limitations.  I just don't expect demand will be in proportion to supply, which means automakers will have to discount them.  And next gen hybrids and PHEV's will be far more efficient, cheaper and with zero limitations. 

 

What will change:

1. Manufacturers will have platforms dedicated to BEVs rather than compromised and modified ICE platforms.  At the moment, only GM and Tesla have dedicated platforms on the market. (Nissan Leaf shares its platform with other Nissan / Renault / Datsun small cars)
2. Battery technology continues to improve.  With more investment pouring in, expect the improvements to accelerate. 
3. With more manufacturers entering the market, common components will start to fall in price as economies of scale ramp up.
4. EVs have fewer parts than ICE engines... once EV makers hit their stride with the new designs, costs will drop.
5. New charging stations come online every day.

21 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

6 cents / kWh?  That's impossibly low.... that doesn't include delivery?  Delivery alone is usually that much.  Typical commodity + delivery across the US is 12 cents / kWh (the reason I know this is because I've been researching cryptocurrency mining for a client).  At that price, 20 c/kWh isn't terrible for an on the road charge... even at 35 c/kWh it's a deal compared to buying bottled water v. bringing water from your tap at home. 

6 cents per kWh is what shows up on my bill before the state and fed taxes. Washington has always been one of the cheapest in the nation for electric rates. So just looked at my local PUD bill that came in and with figuring in the taxes here, the rate comes out to .0943 cents per kWh.  

5 minutes ago, dfelt said:

6 cents per kWh is what shows up on my bill before the state and fed taxes. Washington has always been one of the cheapest in the nation for electric rates. So just looked at my local PUD bill that came in and with figuring in the taxes here, the rate comes out to .0943 cents per kWh.  

That's the generation side of the bill.  There should be a delivery side also.  For most electric customers in the US, the electric bill is actually two bills in one.  Even if the generation side and delivery side have the same name, they are often legally different companies.

And since you're charged taxes, you should include that in your price per kWh.... you don't not-count gas taxes do you?

Take your total bill and divide by the number of kWh to find your true rate.   There is no way your final cost at the plug is 6 cent per kWh. That would barely cover the lines to your house.

1 hour ago, Drew Dowdell said:

That's the generation side of the bill.  There should be a delivery side also.  For most electric customers in the US, the electric bill is actually two bills in one.  Even if the generation side and delivery side have the same name, they are often legally different companies.

And since you're charged taxes, you should include that in your price per kWh.... you don't not-count gas taxes do you?

Take your total bill and divide by the number of kWh to find your true rate.   There is no way your final cost at the plug is 6 cent per kWh. That would barely cover the lines to your house.

Forgot about the city tax I live in but my rate still came out to a flat 10 cents per kWh. Will post a pic of my bill to show we have cheap electric rates here. One reason the Aluminum industry and recycled steel industry is here, cheap power to make their product.

3 minutes ago, dfelt said:

Forgot about the city tax I live in but my rate still came out to a flat 10 cents per kWh. Will post a pic of my bill to show we have cheap electric rates here. One reason the Aluminum industry and recycled steel industry is here, cheap power to make their product.

10 c / kWh sounds a lot more like it... it is on the cheap side, but still within industry norms. 

5 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

10 c / kWh sounds a lot more like it... it is on the cheap side, but still within industry norms. 

Doing it the way you say to do it Drew, I came out with:

$00.10002796420 per kWh cost.

1 hour ago, dfelt said:

Doing it the way you say to do it Drew, I came out with:

$00.10002796420 per kWh cost.

So your billed rate is 9.437 cents p kWh.  If your supplier charge is 6 cents / kWh, then your distribution charge is 3.437 (which is super cheap).  You probably don't have telephone poles around there I'm guessing?

49 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

So your billed rate is 9.437 cents p kWh.  If your supplier charge is 6 cents / kWh, then your distribution charge is 3.437 (which is super cheap).  You probably don't have telephone poles around there I'm guessing?

LOL, we have some in the older neighborhoods, but due to the extreme wind storms that come off the pacific ocean, the push since the early 90's is that all new construction has to be underground. Also starting in the late 90's the push by Washington to harness the wind and sea has created big farms of green energy, so you can also offset your rate with adding green energy request. I do not do this for multiple reasons but the biggest is you are subject to brownouts compared to everyone else that is on pure hydro power. For the couple cents, until I remodel my house and do the whole roof solar with storage and then I will go totally green as I can survive with my battery bank.

 I have been watching Tesla for many, many years. I have seen very little improvement in terms of range cost reduction. I see only improvements by way of larger batteries, like the Chevy Bolt achieves. And that is also with optimized and costly platforms, far from any foreseeable profit. Good luck with that and all the inherent restrictions.

On 10/6/2017 at 3:30 PM, dfelt said:

I have stated it before and will state it again, we are living in interesting times. The EV Auto's are at the stage of ICE auto's at the start of the 1900's. As such the auto show circuit will be very interesting to see and watch over the next 3-5 years.

Except real cars and electric cars were in the SAME PLACE at the start of the 1900s, and real cars won out then, and have continued to do so every single day since.  Real cars have advanced beyond anyone's wildest dreams since then... but electrics are still putting along with the very same problems that prevented them from being relevant at the start of the 20th century.

2 hours ago, ocnblu said:

Except real cars and electric cars were in the SAME PLACE at the start of the 1900s, and real cars won out then, and have continued to do so every single day since.  Real cars have advanced beyond anyone's wildest dreams since then... but electrics are still putting along with the very same problems that prevented them from being relevant at the start of the 20th century.

Wrong and you are showing your blind ignorance to the advances of technology and Moore's law as Batteries lost in the 1900's due to humans not being advanced enough to build the right parts to support EV auto's. We are now beyond the Dinosaur age or in your case Horse with Blinders as Engineers and Scientist are pushing the boundaries every day and this time EV will win out.

Like so many companies that ignored the direction of the future and changes in technology, you will find yourself left behind Padawan by not embracing change.

4 hours ago, ocnblu said:

PEOPLE LIKE THINGS THAT I DON'T AND THAT MAKES ME REALLY MAD

On 10/6/2017 at 2:08 PM, Frisky Dingo said:

For an everyday driver, I have no problem with going electric. So long as the range is there, and the price is competitive. I actually look forward to the VW Bus that is coming in a few years.

Quotes for truth.

On 10/14/2017 at 1:48 PM, Guest DetroitMuscle said:

 I have been watching Tesla for many, many years. I have seen very little improvement in terms of range cost reduction. I see only improvements by way of larger batteries, like the Chevy Bolt achieves. And that is also with optimized and costly platforms, far from any foreseeable profit. Good luck with that and all the inherent restrictions.

Tesla also has astronomical cash flow issues.

8 hours ago, A Horse With No Name said:

Quotes for truth.

Tesla also has astronomical cash flow issues.

Elon Musk had better be careful about Tesla having cash flow issues.  A LOT of younger companies go out of business because of negative cash flow, probably more than any other reason.  Remember one reason GM had to file for BK was the debt and cash flow issues that had existed for years.  If Ford does NOT pay down its recession-era debts, they will have cash flow issues too, and that might threaten the long-term survival of Ford.