Bob Lutz Sees A Grim Future For the Automobile

While he may be right eventually, I think his timeline is a bit too short. I'd guess 30 - 50 years only because of the long period of turnover for vehicles which is only growing.  I regularly encounter, while driving my 35 year old car, other vehicles of similar vintage on the road.  My 13 year old Honda is as common as anything out there, enough so that I have to look for the faded Mile 0 sticker on the back window to make sure I'm getting in my own silver CR-V and not someone else's. 

Even if we get widespread adoption of autonomous cars on the market in 10 years, the cars that are new 9 years from now will likely still be on the road in 2042. 

It could happen in 20 years, I don't think that is so far off, Autonomous cars will get really common, I think for sure in 20 years you'll see more autonomous cars than human driven, getting the government to ban driving will probably be harder than building the cars themselves.

I think though it won't be all cars on the road, but just as many autonomous drones in the sky.  Less variables to worry about in the air then there are on a road.

The other big thing that will swing the tide is cost.  If you think of the cost to own a car, $300-400 a month in payment, $80 a month in insurance, $100-200 in gas, $100-200 in maintenance, etc.  All of a sudden we are talking $600 a month, add on another $100 a month in parking if you commute into a city.  If you can get rides in autonomous pods of some sort for even $300 a month, why buy a car?

20 years is way too soon. The soonest credible estimates peg it at more like 30.

Who's paying an average $200 a month in maintenance?  Maybe a used Benz owner... 

But in all seriousness, 20 years is still too soon for it to be the majority of transportation in this country.  Product plans are being put in place today for vehicles that will hit the market in 10 years.   While I do agree that automation will increase... the half life of vehicles is just too long for the transformation to happen that quickly. 

1966 :

Quote

Congress introduces the earliest bills recommending use of electric vehicles as a means of reducing air pollution. A Gallup poll indicates that 33 million Americans are interested in electric vehicles.

33 million was 17% of the then population of 195 million.
PHEV/EV sales 51 years later: 0.5% of all vehicle sales.

- - - - -

Mainstream AD cars won't be significant in 20 OR 30 years. The industry moves far slower than people tend to think it does.

25 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Who's paying an average $200 a month in maintenance?  Maybe a used Benz owner... 

But in all seriousness, 20 years is still too soon for it to be the majority of transportation in this country.  Product plans are being put in place today for vehicles that will hit the market in 10 years.   While I do agree that automation will increase... the half life of vehicles is just too long for the transformation to happen that quickly. 

$200 in maintenance is too high now that I reread that, but if you factor in tires and brakes, oil changes, air filters, state inspections, and any repairs, I think $100 a month is reasonable.   Would be less on a brand new car under warranty.

20 years from now: I doubt that.  Sometime in the 2050s or 60s: Sure.  I doubt any of us will be around when this comes to fruition.

20 minutes ago, balthazar said:

1966 :

33 million was 17% of the then population of 195 million.
PHEV/EV sales 51 years later: 0.5% of all vehicle sales.

- - - - -

Mainstream AD cars won't be significant in 20 OR 30 years. The industry moves far slower than people tend to think it does.

Cost keeps people from buying EV's.  If a Tesla Model S was $44,900 base and $69,900 for the P100 D then several luxury brands would be out of business right now.  

The day is coming when you'll be able to get unlimited rides in a Tesla Model S level car for half the price of buying or leasing a Ford Focus.   Then people will stop buying cars.

Or if the government mandates that it is illegal to drive a car, then that ends driving also.  But they can't figure out how to make it illegal to own an assault rifle, so who knows.  When you look at the top 2 killers in this country, shootings and car accidents are it.   There could be a 9/11 World Trade center event every month of the year and car crashes would still kill more people.

1 minute ago, smk4565 said:

Cost keeps people from buying EV's.  If a Tesla Model S was $44,900 base and $69,900 for the P100 D then several luxury brands would be out of business right now.  

The day is coming when you'll be able to get unlimited rides in a Tesla Model S level car for half the price of buying or leasing a Ford Focus.   Then people will stop buying cars.

Or if the government mandates that it is illegal to drive a car, then that ends driving also.  But they can't figure out how to make it illegal to own an assault rifle, so who knows.  When you look at the top 2 killers in this country, shootings and car accidents are it.   There could be a 9/11 World Trade center event every month of the year and car crashes would still kill more people.

Well... no... there would still be that little issue of building them which seems to be a challenge for Tesla at the moment. 

5 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Well... no... there would still be that little issue of building them which seems to be a challenge for Tesla at the moment. 

Fair enough, but if they had the production capacity.  Same could be said for if Mercedes or Audi or anyone else if they had an EV car at that price point with that capability.  If Toyota had a Camry EV for $26,000 they would sell 1 million a year I bet.  Once the batteries get cheaper, the gas engine will be done.

37,700 killed in car accidents last year, something like 93% of that is due to human error, that is why the government will ban driving.  Drug overdoses are 60,000 a year, so cars are behind that, gun deaths about 33,000 a year.  

It's not capacity, it's skill.  On the Model 3 line they are operating the robots manually.  That runs completely counter to Musk's claim that they'll be ramping up to 10,000 a month when no one in the industry runs a single line at that speed.  I forget the statistic, but I think Ford has one of the fastest producing plants out there (F-150) and that one plant can't even manage 10,000 a month. 

I see them as being only part of what is on the road. I still see human driven cars, as people are simply not going to give that up with a fight. If people don't trust the government enough to give them their guns, I highly doubt they will give up driving themselves either....

The only way that I see this happening in any time frame soon is if it was government forced.  People at their core still want choice, no matter how little there might be.

While I wouldn't mind a car (or bus) taking me to say...work- I would still want the freedom to drive when and where I wanted to. And while I see it for the large cities, pretty sure it would be tough in say large rural areas.....

56 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

It's not capacity, it's skill.  On the Model 3 line they are operating the robots manually.  That runs completely counter to Musk's claim that they'll be ramping up to 10,000 a month when no one in the industry runs a single line at that speed.  I forget the statistic, but I think Ford has one of the fastest producing plants out there (F-150) and that one plant can't even manage 10,000 a month. 

I doubt Tesla will even be at 3000 a week by the end of January.

2 hours ago, smk4565 said:

If Toyota had a Camry EV for $26,000 they would sell 1 million a year I bet.

Nissan has a Leaf EV for $30K; they're gonna sell 13,xxx this year.

When you look at the top 2 killers in this country, shootings and car accidents are it.

Not even close.

MAXIMUM BOOB IS BACK AT IT

His fortune-telling abilities are about as credible as his insistence that climate change is a farce.

THIS MAN...

WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS...

never forget

Bob Lutz is a god.  Don't forget it, kiddos.  Wow, look at them coming out of the woodwork in honor of The Man.

13 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Who's paying an average $200 a month in maintenance?

Even $100 a month sounded high to me.. By quite a bit. Unless the user is buying ties on a yearly basis, which would then make sense, if it's just our regular oil changes, filter changes, even if you added trans flushes once a year(which no company suggests as most are a sealed system now) you're still talking like $20 a month. Guestimating 3 oil changes($35 each), 2 tire rotations($20 each), and one $100 trans flush is just a tad over $20 a month. And you could mix and match that $100 trans flush to brakes or other miscellaneous things totaling $100. I could see on an older car where things are braking but at that point the vehicle should already be owned.

13 hours ago, balthazar said:

1966 :

33 million was 17% of the then population of 195 million.
PHEV/EV sales 51 years later: 0.5% of all vehicle sales.

- - - - -

Mainstream AD cars won't be significant in 20 OR 30 years. The industry moves far slower than people tend to think it does.

People would and are interested but I think range anxiety is probably the biggest hold up. Then when they look into it(as an average joe family guy) and see they need to spend another $1000 to put a home charger in.. they get deterred. 

I'm in agreeance with everybody here that 20 years sounds too soon and I pray to sweet baby Jesus that it is too soon because I'd still like to be able to drive my own car in 20 years. 

13 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Well... no... there would still be that little issue of building them which seems to be a challenge for Tesla at the moment. 

Tesla is a dead man walking in the automobile industry.  I see them done by 2019 or 2020.

5 hours ago, ocnblu said:

Bob Lutz is a god.  Don't forget it, kiddos.  Wow, look at them coming out of the woodwork in honor of The Man.

This is Cheers and Gears...i could see people coming out with wood in honor of a man...

9 hours ago, Intrepidation said:

MAXIMUM BOOB IS BACK AT IT

His fortune-telling abilities are about as credible as his insistence that climate change is a farce.

He is an absolute moron on the Climate change issue.  I think insurance companies not the government will be the big push for autonomous cars.  They do not need to be anywhere near 99.9 % perfect, just better than humans.

As I have said before, my middle daughter is working in automotive claims.  Claim the other day was from a person who rear ended a vehicle stopped at a red light.  Woman driving the car claimed she shouldn't be marked at fault because cars shouldn't stop at red lights. She sees and deals with something this stupid on a daily basis.  This, not the evil Gov'ment or Lutz is driving us towards autonomous cars.

13 hours ago, smk4565 said:

Fair enough, but if they had the production capacity.  Same could be said for if Mercedes or Audi or anyone else if they had an EV car at that price point with that capability.  If Toyota had a Camry EV for $26,000 they would sell 1 million a year I bet.  Once the batteries get cheaper, the gas engine will be done.

37,700 killed in car accidents last year, something like 93% of that is due to human error, that is why the government will ban driving.  Drug overdoses are 60,000 a year, so cars are behind that, gun deaths about 33,000 a year.  

Gun deaths are largely but not entirely the human tree of life being self pruning.  Tree of life is also self pruning in our insistence on the merit in for profit health care.  Many of those car accidents are tree of life self pruning also...I.E. people trying to beat a train.

Nature and Darwin would dictate that a certain portion of any population is unfit to reproduce. The woman putting on makeup while texting in the Sonata in the next lane would be the mandate for this claim.

13 hours ago, smk4565 said:

 There could be a 9/11 World Trade center event every month of the year and car crashes would still kill more people.

See tree of life self pruning comment.

Merging this with the Kia Soul thread...small rodents/mammals probably more effective at driving than Humans. 

13 hours ago, smk4565 said:

But they can't figure out how to make it illegal to own an assault rifle, so who knows.  When you look at the top 2 killers in this country, shootings and car accidents are it.

Hand guns kill more people than assault rifles. 

19 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

Hand guns kill more people than assault rifles. 

Human stupidity is the real reason most of these  people die...

When you try to stiff your meth dealer for payment in a dark alley or pull a loaded gun on a cop...you don't need to be part of our gene pool.

okay, back on topic.....

8 minutes ago, A Horse With No Name said:

Human stupidity is the real reason most of these  people die...

When you try to stiff your meth dealer for payment in a dark alley or pull a loaded gun on a cop...you don't need to be part of our gene pool.

I completely agree with you. 

7 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

okay, back on topic.....

I just had a small chat with a lady who works in IT and on the TV in the break room it had something about "the end of the car is near" and she asked what it was about and I said blah blah blah autonomous cars and people not driving themselves anymore. She then asked well who's going to drive them then? And I replied the computers. She laughed and said she works in IT and she doesn't even trust computers to do things, let alone drive her around. 

I thought that was a little comical and somebody might enjoy it. 

12 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

I just had a small chat with a lady who works in IT and on the TV in the break room it had something about "the end of the car is near" and she asked what it was about and I said blah blah blah autonomous cars and people not driving themselves anymore. She then asked well who's going to drive them then? And I replied the computers. She laughed and said she works in IT and she doesn't even trust computers to do things, let alone drive her around. 

I thought that was a little comical and somebody might enjoy it. 

I do enjoy it, thanks.  The real problem is our 24 hour news cycle and our need to constantly worry that the sky is falling.  Lutz is just being an attention whore by becoming part of the process.

are people really taking the guy whose claim to fame was removing cladding from the Avalanche and who came up the following vehicle seriously?

44 minutes ago, FAPTurbo said:

are people really taking the guy whose claim to fame was removing cladding from the Avalanche and who came up the following vehicle seriously?

Well...for me...his  claim to fame was this:

Not that I dont agree with you or anybody else in this thread regarding the autonomous driving car thing.

Ill go a step further and say...AUTONOMOUS DRIVING CARS WILL NEVER BE A THING!

Insurances could try to push this forward...but I dont see how, even A.I.,  could possibly AVOID disaster...

We all talk about rural areas being an issue for the US...and Canada too...Winnipeg is a s rural as a CITY can get...hell...even Calgary and Edmonton for that matter...

But...as I mention these Northern Canadian Cities...

In Canada (Canadian Cities)...as well as Minneapolis, Chicago, Berlin, Moscow and the like...

we all have to deal with EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES AND ICE AND FREEZING THAWING AND RUST!!!

(RUSTING due to MANY factors and SENSOR AND COMPUTER BREAK DOWNS (electric connector failures and the like) DUE TO THE EXTREME COLD WEATHER RENDERING EVEN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE USELESS due to the fact that these "pods" are ALWAYS GONNA BE OUTSIDE...and so forth and so forth)

*SIGH*

Utopia...

Yeah right!!!

54 minutes ago, FAPTurbo said:

are people really taking the guy whose claim to fame was removing cladding from the Avalanche and who came up the following vehicle seriously?

He didn't come up with that and he wasn't in design.  That was the best that design could come up with on the budget they were given after he rejected the original proposal with much of the car already locked in.  Imagine what it looked like before that.  And given what the Civic Type-R looks like these days, Pontiac was just 10 years ahead of its time. 

He did the same thing with the original Lacrosse. 

Just now, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

Remember, Lutz was not a designer...wasn't he more of a sales guy and product planner? 

Correct... he mostly handled the hardware under the skin.  He only got into design when he was rejecting stuff where he could. 

Its easy...right?

Farming machines are being tested to be autonomous as we speak...

The snow plows and trucks to get the snow and ice off the streets will ALSO be autonomous ALONGSIDE the autonomous cars, right?

IN A SNOW STORM...what happens?

All kinds of problems with THAT scenario that I dont have the energy to state...

When roads freeze up WITHOUT any kind of storm...what happens then?

Does the guvment call off ALL the pods OFF the road to de-ice ALL the streets?

Because...mother nature is a lot more powerful than anybody I know...so...how does the economic body that will control autonomous cars will cope with NOBODY being driven meaning NO MONIES ARE BEING MADE...

The way LUTZ describes this future...UBER type companies will control this...

Will UBER type companies allow for no profits being made?

If they do allow the peeps to move around...THERE WILL BE ACCIDENTS...HOW BIG WILL THE LAWSUITS BE?

WILL PEOPLE ACCEPT BEING SHUT DOWN AND NOT BE DRIVEN?

Yeah...UTOPIA!!!

3 minutes ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

Remember, Lutz was not a designer...wasn't he more of a sales guy and product planner? 

Being in IT for 20+ years and seeing the complexity, fragility, bugs and insecurity of software on a daily basis, I can't imagine trusting software to control something as complex as driving....

Yup!

And like I ranted...when you throw snow and ice and extreme weather into the mix...

Artificial intelligence or not...its still a machine...and machines break down MORE OFTEN than humans do...

5 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

 And like I ranted...when you throw snow and ice and extreme weather into the mix...

Artificial intelligence or not...its still a machine...and machines break down MORE OFTEN than humans do...

auto pilot for planes or for tractors tractoring in fields are easier scenarios than driving, when you account for the other traffic, obstacles, road conditions, types of roads, etc...

I have less of an issue with road conditions... I have an issue with sensors being fouled out.   I was using active cruise in a Lincoln a few years ago during a snow storm and at one point the cruise gave up because the sensor was iced over. 

People are not going to be able to rely on automated cars for any poor weather driving for a long time. 

11 minutes ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

auto pilot for planes or for tractors tractoring in fields are easier scenarios than driving, when you account for the other traffic, obstacles, road conditions, types of roads, etc...

All those are  closed circuits.

Even airplanes flying freely into the vast sky...

Aircraft are flown with a very precise mapping system where the sky is a grid and computers use calculated vectors to get to their PRE-DETERMINED destination THAT WAS PRE-DETERMINED A LOOOOONG TIME AGO.

Driving from point A to B is  MOST of the time pre-determined too...but...humans also like to do things on a whim...driving to point C and D and F and then Z back to point C and THEN to Point B is a calculation that will NEVER be calculated fast enough because humans CHANGE THEIR MINDS INSTANTLY!!!

Throw in Mother Nature and well...autonomous driving in an OPEN circuit is an IMPOSSIBILITY no  matter HOW  much smarter A.I.will be than humans as HUMANS CHANGE THEIR MINDS ON A WHIM AND CHANGE THEIR PLANS...NOW!!!

Silicon Valley forgets that humans has this trait called....FREE WILL.

THAT is what defines us...

1 hour ago, oldshurst442 said:

Artificial intelligence or not...its still a machine...and machines break down MORE OFTEN than humans do...

I agree with everything you said up until this point.. Machines don't have 3-5 weeks of vacation days a year and/or sick days nor will they be broken down THAT much. Yes, they'll break and be down at times but I can't see them being out a month's worth of time in a year. 

10 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

I agree with everything you said up until this point.. Machines don't have 3-5 weeks of vacation days a year and/or sick days nor will they be broken down THAT much. Yes, they'll break and be down at times but I can't see them being out a month's worth of time in a year. 

I disagree with both of you. 

I think @Cubical-aka-Moltar and I are kinda on the same page.

Machines are often left to run at sub-optimal for extended periods of time.  While we may not consider it fully broken down because it can still do some work, it is not working as designed or even less likely as intended.  How often do people run around with check engine lights on or half flat tires?  They'll just let it go because they can't be bothered to fix it even if it is just stopping at a gas station to put air in the tire.

As Cubi said, machines are designed by imperfect humans.... but much more worrisome is that they're often operated by lazy morons.

3 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

I agree with everything you said up until this point.. Machines don't have 3-5 weeks of vacation days a year and/or sick days nor will they be broken down THAT much. Yes, they'll break and be down at times but I can't see them being out a month's worth of time in a year. 

When a car has an issue of some sort...how many hours does it sit in the garage decommissioned  before it gets repaired?

How long is it gonna take this bus to get back to work?

How long before this plane flies the peeps around again?

Remember...repair and overhaul for these autonomous pods will be crucial to OUR safety...these are gonna be machines...driven DAILY with hundreds of miles on them NON-STOP DAILY...accumulating HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF MILES WEEKLY BECAUSE WHOLE POPULATIONS (so the saying goes) WILL BE USING THEM BECAUSE NO OTHER CHOICES...

And I suppose these centers wont be needed any more...for lubrication or systems check-ups and repairs and the like...

gah... I just realized something else thanks to @oldshurst442

I ride the bus here in Pittsburgh sometimes... I take subways in other cities.

People are disgusting on public transit. I can't count the number of times I've declined to sit in a seat because someone spilled something all over it.  At least in an Uber, if someone hurls on the seat, the driver will stop and have the car cleaned before picking up the next fare.

8 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

I disagree with both of you. 

I think @Cubical-aka-Moltar and I are kinda on the same page.

Machines are often left to run at sub-optimal for extended periods of time.  While we may not consider it fully broken down because it can still do some work, it is not working as designed or even less likely as intended.  How often do people run around with check engine lights on or half flat tires?  They'll just let it go because they can't be bothered to fix it even if it is just stopping at a gas station to put air in the tire.

As Cubi said, machines are designed by imperfect humans.... but much more worrisome is that they're often operated by lazy morons.

We are on the same page...

Again..the way Lutz explains it...UBER type companies will be in control...

Will THEY be performing repair and overhaul duties as scheduled?

In the airplane world...laws are put into place to ENSURE repair and overhaul schedules are respected...and even then...some aircraft are flown questionably...a lot less in North America and Europe as compared to some 3rd world Airline fliers...but it happens here too...

Lest not forget that in the airplane industry...its VERY CLOSELY MONITORED...

In the trucking industry...where I think will closely resemble how things will REALLY work with the autonomous thingy..much is left to be desired...

Just now, oldshurst442 said:

We are on the same page...

Again..the way Lutz explains it...UBER type companies will be in control...

Will THEY be performing repair and overhaul duties as scheduled?

In the airplane world...laws are put into place to ENSURE repair and overhaul schedules are respected...and even then...some aircraft are flown questionably...a lot less in North America and Europe as compared to some 3rd world Airline fliers...but it happens here too...

Lest not forget that in the airplane industry...its VERY CLOSELY MONITORED...

In the trucking industry...where I think will closely resemble how things will REALLY work with the autonomous thingy..much is left to be desired...

 

I can't imagine the taxi industry being in charge.  The last time I took a taxi here in Pittsburgh (probably the last time ever) was before Uber came to town.  I remember that ride vividly.  It was a 350K+ mile Impala with bad wheel bearings, probably an out of balance tire, and every idiot light on the dashboard screaming like a christmas tree.  Taxis in NYC are beat to crap also, but those drivers get you there fast and know all of the routes to avoid traffic.  Even WAZE isn't more up to date on traffic than an NYC cabbie. 

Just now, Drew Dowdell said:

gah... I just realized something else thanks to @oldshurst442

I ride the bus here in Pittsburgh sometimes... I take subways in other cities.

People are disgusting on public transit. I can't count the number of times I've declined to sit in a seat because someone spilled something all over it.  At least in an Uber, if someone hurls on the seat, the driver will stop and have the car cleaned before picking up the next fare.

Ive said that before...

With UBER...

Rental car agencies CLEAN their cars BEFORE handing the keys to the next client...

The busses remain disgusting all day and get cleaned up at night...and that is with a SMALL subset of users...

How will UBER type companies deal with shyte when EVERYBODY will be using these pods?

How  many more spare pods will they have for replacing the dirty ones...the ones that JUST broke-down due to a flat tire or computer malfunction, etc?

AINT GONNA HAPPEN!!!

2 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

Ive said that before...

With UBER...

Rental car agencies CLEAN their cars BEFORE handing the keys to the next client...

The busses remain disgusting all day and get cleaned up at night...and that is with a SMALL subset of users...

How will UBER type companies deal with shyte when EVERYBODY will be using these pods?

How  many more spare pods will they have for replacing the dirty ones...the ones that JUST broke-down due to a flat tire or computer malfunction, etc?

AINT GONNA HAPPEN!!!

 

I mean... when this gets rolled out somewhere, how long till the click bait headline about a couple getting caught having sex in the back of an autonomous driving car?

3 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

I mean... when this gets rolled out somewhere, how long till the click bait headline about a couple getting caught having sex in the back of an autonomous driving car?

I dont know...

But that is a yucky thought...

And I was a voyeur once upon a time ago...when I was young and horny and stupid and  I did not think about things like human fluids possibly being tainted with a disease of some sort...

On 11/8/2017 at 1:31 PM, FAPTurbo said:

are people really taking the guy whose claim to fame was removing cladding from the Avalanche and who came up the following vehicle seriously?

That is some sexy stuff...I wonder if i can park that in my garage next to my Trabant and start another dream car thread...

On 11/8/2017 at 4:29 PM, oldshurst442 said:

 things like human fluids possibly being tainted with a disease of some sort...

This is why I like C and G...we talk about human fluids and a Grand Am...two things that seem to go well together.

On 11/8/2017 at 4:25 PM, Drew Dowdell said:

I mean... when this gets rolled out somewhere, how long till the click bait headline about a couple getting caught having sex in the back of an autonomous driving car?

Not very long at all...

1 hour ago, A Horse With No Name said:

This is why I like C and G...we talk about human fluids and a Grand Am...two things that seem to go well together.

Ahem...

That is not a Grand Am

That is more like a...

Like a G6. Like a G6. Like a GGGGGG6. That is a fly Pontiac G6.

For the record...I HATE this song and Im not particularly enamored with a Gulfstream G6.

Im more of a homeboy and prefer the Bombardier Challenger jets!

The Pontiacs are as indistinguishable as the bodily fluids contained upon their seats.  I stand corrected!

5 minutes ago, A Horse With No Name said:

The Pontiacs are as indistinguishable as the bodily fluids contained upon their seats.  I stand corrected!

For the record, again, I dont feel like that is a "G6". Just because Pontiac decided to go alphanumerics on us...

For myself, and you too I guess, a G6 is NOT a G6 but a Grand Am.

So...all this talk...is for nada. We are back to square one!