Cadillac Faces A Conundrum With the Escalade

They say it starts at 38 grand, but you won't find one like that on any dealer lot.

The reality is that Benz has nothing to match the Escalade. The G-class is too crude and their other stuff just can't measure up.

You could find one on a dealer lot for under 55k.  I just went to autotrader and there are a plethora of GLC's in the 40-50k range to choose from(new). Most are in the 44-50k range though.

The closest Mercedes has is the GLS. I definitely will not say it "doesn't measure up" as the goals of both vehicles are different. The GLS will have a more car-like drive(compared to a BOF vehicle), it offeres 4 or so engines to choose from, it's a little smaller(good or bad depends on the purchaser's needs). 

 

Well a DOHC V8 is ideal, but they don't have one because GM doesn't take Cadillac seriously or invest properly in it.  If the DOHC V8 is coming soon, I would just start with the 3.0TT V6 as the standard motor, make the CT6 like $62k base, wait for the V8 to arrive in year 2.  If the 3.0TT V6 is too thirsty for some buyers, that is why you have the plug-in hybrid model.

 

I think they should get an electric crossover in the works ASAP also, word is Mercedes is working on a 500 hp electric crossover with a 250 mile range for $55k, at least that is the target.   Audi has the e-tron stuff coming.  Perhaps an Electric Escalade could be put in place for 2020 and beyond.

If you actually believe that MB plans on building a 550HP electric crossover for $55K, then that perfectly illustrates your problem with expectations of the competition, not to mention that is not even close to the price that it will go for. Seriously.

 

 

Completely agree. There is no way MB would produce an SUV with a 550hp electric drive-train and it would only cost 55k. That's basically starting price of a GLE. 

 

Exactly. His description would put it closer to $155K.

Audi has a Q6 e-tron coming in 2018 with 500 HP and a 310 mile range. According to autobild the Mercedes GLC will arrive in late 2018 and have up to 530 HP and a 250 mile range, it is built on a GLC chassis. They said $54k is the target, I assume that is a base model.

GLS is totally on par with the Escalade, you could argue it is better since they have a 577 HP engine option and a fuel sipping diesel option.

We'll see how the CT6 twin turbo does. I don't think it competes with the 750i or S550 but for the sake of argument those cars do 0-60 in 4.3 and 4.5 seconds respectively. The S550 has a new 9-speed that shaved some time of the 4.8.

I do hope Mercedes keeps making V8s, but fear the inline six will replace it most cars. The good news is AMG boss Tobias Moers said they are increasing the power of the V12 to create a "meaningful gap in power" between it and the 577 hp V8. All wheel drive is being added too.

Dood.

The Escalade smokes Range Rovers. Ain't no Benz touching it.

Dood.

The Escalade smokes Range Rovers. Ain't no Benz touching it.

Smokes? How so? What kind of competition are we talking about? 

Are you talking about their super charged v6 or super charged v8? As for striaght line acceleration... 

The v6 will run a [email protected] through the 1/4

v8: [email protected] 

Escalade ran a [email protected]

I'm talking about the MT comparo from a while back. I believe the RR has the blown 6 but hey, at that price it deserved to lose with that engine.

I could see two future gen platform's for these trucks having a base version for Chevrolet's Tahoe/Sub and GMC's Yukon. Then a more premium focused version with perhaps an independent rear suspension,Smaller Turbocharged Cadillac based V8's among other premium features for the Denali GMC's and the Escalade.---FIXED!!

A GL63 does 0-60 in 4.7 seconds and a 13.1 second 1/4 mile.  More impressive is it stops from 60 mph in 104 feet, which is only 1 ft more than a CTS V-sport.  And that was the 2013 model before the 27 hp power bump for the new GLS63.  The GLS is more than capable to compete with any other full size SUV.

A GL63 does 0-60 in 4.7 seconds and a 13.1 second 1/4 mile.  More impressive is it stops from 60 mph in 104 feet, which is only 1 ft more than a CTS V-sport.  And that was the 2013 model before the 27 hp power bump for the new GLS63.  The GLS is more than capable to compete with any other full size SUV.

Except you are comparing APPLES to ORANGES. The GLS is NOT a Full Size Body on Frame.

Lets keep this to the only Body on Frame SUV that MB makes and is junk. The G Wagon. Till they build a new one from the ground up to compete with the Escalade you are only dealing with Badge Snobs that are idiots in overpaying for a junk built SUV.

Personally, at this level I don't think you can say we're excluding unibody from body on frame because they are about the closest competitors to each other between luxury and size..and the navigator..but let's be honest..it's a step behind.

I will say comparing an AMG model is apples to oranges but the GLS450/550 or whatever are very much competition. Price may not really agree but they have nearly identical goals..right?

 

A GL63 does 0-60 in 4.7 seconds and a 13.1 second 1/4 mile.  More impressive is it stops from 60 mph in 104 feet, which is only 1 ft more than a CTS V-sport.  And that was the 2013 model before the 27 hp power bump for the new GLS63.  The GLS is more than capable to compete with any other full size SUV.

 

Except you are comparing APPLES to ORANGES. The GLS is NOT a Full Size Body on Frame.

 

Lets keep this to the only Body on Frame SUV that MB makes and is junk. The G Wagon. Till they build a new one from the ground up to compete with the Escalade you are only dealing with Badge Snobs that are idiots in overpaying for a junk built SUV.

 

The Town Car was body on frame, how did that compare to other full size luxury cars?  The Ford Explorer was a segment leader as body on frame from 1995-2006 or so, then it died for a while before they brought it back.  A lot of body on frame vehicles meet their demise over time.  Pick-ups are really the only vehicle that is best on body on frame.

The G-wagen is a mid-size vehicle, but if you want to compare it to the Escalade because they are body on frame.  The G-wagen will beat the Escalade off road, and the G-wagen offers an optional V12 engine that is much more powerful and much faster than the Escalade, if for some bizarre reason you want to compare straight line performance on tank like SUVs.

But the G-wagen doesn't even compete with the Escalade, the cheapest G550 is $119,900 and the G65 is $217,900.   And something like 60% of G-wagens are AMG models.   If Cadillac would like to make the base Escalade $120,000 and $150,000 for a Platinum, bring it on, and we'll see how the Escalade does against the old G-wagen in sales.

The GLS is full size, it has a 121.1 inch wheelbase, 202.6 inches long, 72.8 inches tall, and 84.3 inches wide.

The Escalade has a 116 inch wheelbase, 203.9 inches long, 74.4 inches tall and 80.5 inches wide.  Those 2 are pretty close in size, GLS is the Escalade competitor.  

The Escalade, along with (possibly) the Range Rover, are the vehicles that call the shots in this segment. Therefore the BOF/unibody question is largely moot-customers like the Slade as it is, thank you very much. Cool trumps the rest.

I'm a 72 year old Cadillac buyer... not an alphabet soup buyer. I don't fit comfortably in those new squeeze boxes. It feels like a coffin which is something I'd like to save till the end. Give me a Fleetwood or de Ville with a bench seat and some room. I don't need to be able to do 135 and neither does anyone else. I don't have to feel the acceleration or be able to do the nürburgring in less than 9 minutes, I just want a comfortable roomy car that doesn't intrude into my driving experience. In my town of 1860 souls, there are about 40 de villes 10 or 15 Escalades and a single alphabet car.

A GL63 does 0-60 in 4.7 seconds and a 13.1 second 1/4 mile.  More impressive is it stops from 60 mph in 104 feet, which is only 1 ft more than a CTS V-sport.  And that was the 2013 model before the 27 hp power bump for the new GLS63.  The GLS is more than capable to compete with any other full size SUV.

Capable is one thing. Competing is quite another and on the sales front, that is where the Escalade succeeds despite the luxury CUV craze.

A GL63 does 0-60 in 4.7 seconds and a 13.1 second 1/4 mile.  More impressive is it stops from 60 mph in 104 feet, which is only 1 ft more than a CTS V-sport.  And that was the 2013 model before the 27 hp power bump for the new GLS63.  The GLS is more than capable to compete with any other full size SUV.

That GL63 starts at $121K so why are you comparing it to an Escalade at that price point, when the Slade starts at $50K CHEAPER? To even get into a V8 GL, you need $20K more than you would for a V8 Escalade. MB should really have a V8 GL that starts at a similar price point as the Slade and forgo the V6 altogether since it is only $6K cheaper than the Slade. 

Funny how the logic you use on Cadillac can easily be applied to Mercedes. The only difference is that you will have no fewer than five excuses why that is okay for MB but not for Cadillac.

I think the Escalade and GL are equals as far as size, price, sales, market position/status, etc.  The Range Rover isn't quite full size, but there is a new long wheel base model, so if you want to throw that into the argument, those are the top 3.  It is big drop to the Navigator, LX570, QX80, etc.

I pulled the Car and Driver tests of the GL450 and Escalade.

GL was $66,125 base, $87,860 as tested.  0-60 in 5.9 seconds, top speed 130 mph, 7,500 lb tow capacity, 70-0 braking 179 ft.  17/21 mpg, 16 mpg observed.

Escalade $76,565 base, $89,360 tested.  0-60 in 5.6 seconds, top speed 113 mph, 8,300 lb tow capacity, 70-0 braking 188 ft.  15/21 mpg, 14 mpg observed.

So for similar money you get similar performance.  The GL550 offers more performance  for $95k, but most Mercedes cost more than their rivals because they have the best brand image and can charge more.   Personally if I had to drive a GL I'd get the diesel, because all these big SUVs can't really be driven fast anyway, and the diesel gets like 27 mpg and has low end torque you want in a truck.

I agree with you SMK for M-B being able to charge more because of image.

The one Cadillac where I think beats M-B in image in an equivalent price and product area is the Escalade.

One thought to ponder is if Cadillac ever chooses to price a future Cadillac Escalade V in M-B territory, in $120 000 territory, how well would people react to that?

Because in the lower trims, in the $70 000 - $90 000 price range...the Escalade has the GL beat in image and prestige. BUT....M-B DOES offer a trim above that....so...

And...the GL @ $120 000 is quite successful...

It's funny how 0.3 seconds is "similar performance" when the Mercedes is behind, ....I'll remember that every time you post about a Cadillac 0-60.

I've driven the diesel GL and it has a scary amount of turbo lag.... and I do mean it actually scared me when I tried to make a left turn in traffic and got no response from the engine room.

Let's look at the sales front, GL vs Escalade (and I combined Escalade and ESV)

2015 to date: GL 24,858 Escalade 31,262

2014:  GL 26,597     Escalade 30,469

2013:  GL 29,912     Escalade 20,542

2012:  GL 26,042     Escalade 20,698

2011:  GL 25,139     Escalade 23,467

The GL has beat it 3 of the past 5 years.  GL is losing now, but for a while it was winning, and the revised GLS might close the gap.

It's funny how 0.3 seconds is "similar performance" when the Mercedes is behind, ....I'll remember that every time you post about a Cadillac 0-60.

 

 

I've driven the diesel GL and it has a scary amount of turbo lag.... and I do mean it actually scared me when I tried to make a left turn in traffic and got no response from the engine room.

It is slower for sure, but the GL450 stops quicker, handles better, gets better gas mileage, has higher top speed, and the Escalade tows more.  I meant overall the numbers are similar.   The two vehicles are in the same ball park in terms of size, price, overall performance and sales.

The GLS550 with the 455 hp and 516 lb-ft and 9 speed transmission is there, I think that is a better comparison to go V8 to V8.  But if I do that, it is unfair because the Mercedes costs more.  But that isn't my problem that Cadillac can't get Mercedes prices.

The diesel GL is getting a slight power bump to 255 hp, 455, lb-ft, that should help.

 

It's funny how 0.3 seconds is "similar performance" when the Mercedes is behind, ....I'll remember that every time you post about a Cadillac 0-60.

 

 

I've driven the diesel GL and it has a scary amount of turbo lag.... and I do mean it actually scared me when I tried to make a left turn in traffic and got no response from the engine room.

It is slower for sure, but the GL450 stops quicker, handles better, gets better gas mileage, has higher top speed, and the Escalade tows more.  I meant overall the numbers are similar.   The two vehicles are in the same ball park in terms of size, price, overall performance and sales.

 

The GLS550 with the 455 hp and 516 lb-ft and 9 speed transmission is there, I think that is a better comparison to go V8 to V8.  But if I do that, it is unfair because the Mercedes costs more.  But that isn't my problem that Cadillac can't get Mercedes prices.

 

The diesel GL is getting a slight power bump to 255 hp, 455, lb-ft, that should help.

 

Again (since you continue to dodge it), the GL450 is $20K more at base price.

Let's look at the sales front, GL vs Escalade (and I combined Escalade and ESV)

 

2015 to date: GL 24,858 Escalade 31,262

2014:  GL 26,597     Escalade 30,469

2013:  GL 29,912     Escalade 20,542

2012:  GL 26,042     Escalade 20,698

2011:  GL 25,139     Escalade 23,467

 

The GL has beat it 3 of the past 5 years.  GL is losing now, but for a while it was winning, and the revised GLS might close the gap.

Since you want to cherry pick how far back you want to go. "X" denotes top sales for that year.

MB GL

-----------------

2006--18,776

2007--26,396

2008--23,328

2009--15,012

2010--19,943

2011--25,139

2012--26,042-X

2013--29,912-X

2014--26,597

Cadillac Escalade (including all THREE variants, not just two)

2006--62,206-X

2007--60,991-X

2008--39,710-X

2009--25,884-X

2010--26,874-X

2011--25,503-X

2012--22,632

2013--22,514

2014--30,522-X

More often than not, the Escalade leads and for $20K less on average (even more so when you want to add in the EL63)

Again, color me unimpressed with a vehicle that requires you to fork over $20K more to have nominally better performance.

​Could't help but notice you dodged my statement about MB ditching the V6 much in the way you want Cadillac to ditch the 4 cylinder on the CT6.

Escalade starts at 73k and the GL450 starts at 67k. GL550 starts at like 92k. That must be what you're thinking of.

First off the GL450 has a lower base price than the Escalade.  The GL550 is a higher trim level, thus it costs more than a base Escalade.

The GL was pretty far behind in sales in the 2006-2009 era, but outsold the Escalade in 2012 and 2013, that is good progress.  The Navigator and Japanese full sizers really tanked over that time frame.  The new Escalade vs an aging GL got Cadillac the sales crown back, but the new GLS is coming, maybe a Maybach trim, so we'll see happens.  

The GL450 had a V8, they dropped it because it was an older engine and not fuel efficient.  So they offered a more efficient twin turbo V6 that made the same power as the old V8, and they still offer a twin turbo V8 in the GLS550, and a 577 hp V8 in the GLS63.  Yes the GLS550 is $20k more than a base model V8 Escalade, but it is faster, more luxurious, has more technology, etc.  An Escalade 4-wheel drive platinum is $92,945, that is pretty close to GLS550 price, and they are similarly equipped.  The only options on a GLS550 are the Distronitc Plus package and off road package with 2-speed transfer case and skid plate.  The 2-speed transfer case is an option on the Escalade platinum also, and they don't have Super Cruise on and Escalade. So that is pretty apples to apples if you go Escalade Platinum to GLS550.

My problem with the CT6 is it has a 4 cylinder.  Mercedes didn't put a 2 liter turbo 4 into the GL.  They used a TT V6 to replace a V8, and still offered two V8 options.  If the CT6 would have a base TT V6 and option TT V8, I would have no complaints on powertrain.   The CT6 is supposed to be a premium car, turbo 4's are for the small, entry lux crowd.  

The GLS they just released is a marginal refresh plus a name change.

And oh please, Cadillac could have rebadged an S Class and you still would have bitched about it.

uhh... Big money no whammy'

Holy $h!t they used to sell 60K of those per year?

They sold over 60k CTS in a year too, now it is like 20,000.    The STS had better success than the CTS is having and they cancelled it.  XTS sells worse than the DTS did.  Maybe it wasn't the names, maybe people don't want Cadillacs anymore.  Which is a shame because Cadillac could be a cool brand and had a storied history from about 1915-1975.

The CTS moved from 3-series price to 5-series price and lost two thirds of its bodystyles, yet you can't see a reason for volume decreases. Average transaction prices for the entire brand are up $7k per unit and higher than BMW on a model for model comparison.

Maybe you need flashcards?

^ And audi.

Well the sedan only CTS sold over 60k units in 2005 I think it was, and they didn't even have all wheel drive offered back then.   The ATS is only selling about 25,000 units a year in the same price slot.

BMW brand has low ATP because 45% of their sales are 3 and 4-series and the S-class has squashed the 7-series sales into oblivion.

Well, BMW also lacks a giant 3-row SUV.

I'm sure that a lot of people who want a 3-Row BMW SUV are satisficing with something else, either the X5 or another brand's 3-Row SUV.

But back to Cadillac.

Roll with the conundrum Cadillac. A lot of things about luxury don't make sense. Such as customers ascribing prestige to bottom-feeders to CLAs and one Series sedans.

Rumor is BMW is building an X7, and the rumor on top of that is they will offer a V12.  The 760Li is expected to return next year with a 6.6 liter V12 making 600 hp, that would be a monster SUV motor.   For now though BMW buyers have to look elsewhere. There is now a 7-seat Range Rover, but that 3rd row looks tiny.  

Rumor is BMW is building an X7, and the rumor on top of that is they will offer a V12.  The 760Li is expected to return next year with a 6.6 liter V12 making 600 hp, that would be a monster SUV motor.   For now though BMW buyers have to look elsewhere. There is now a 7-seat Range Rover, but that 3rd row looks tiny.  

Go ahead and drink your coolaid. While they might use their old dinosaur V12 engines a few more years even the germancar4um and other places are debating just how much longer the v12, v10 engines stick around. Many expect over the next 2-3 years these engines to be killed off in favor of TT V8 and some even think that you will see electric with small motor generator be the new top line performance and luxury motor.

Oil prices might be heading lower in the short term with Iran coming on but things are going to change and with so much of Europe and now the US joining the climate change agenda, big fuel thirsty engines like this will have a short life.

On the cadillac front I expect to see the Escalade get a TTV6 as a V Sport Model and if they can push it through the supercharged V8 as a pure V edition. Long range, you have electric motors that put out equal or more HP and Torque than those engines and I can see with a full SUV like the Escalade and 450A batteries having a pure electric Escalade AWD ESV Platinum with a 300-400 mile range since you have no exhaust. You can use both sides of the under carriage to have two massive light weight battery trays.

Rumor is BMW is building an X7, and the rumor on top of that is they will offer a V12.  The 760Li is expected to return next year with a 6.6 liter V12 making 600 hp, that would be a monster SUV motor.   For now though BMW buyers have to look elsewhere. There is now a 7-seat Range Rover, but that 3rd row looks tiny.

6.6 liters and only making 600 hp? That's fairy lame these days. Cadillac makes 640 hp from 6.2 liters, 4 fewer cylinders, and 32 fewer valves..... oh and the sounds it makes...

Rumor is BMW is building an X7, and the rumor on top of that is they will offer a V12. The 760Li is expected to return next year with a 6.6 liter V12 making 600 hp, that would be a monster SUV motor. For now though BMW buyers have to look elsewhere. There is now a 7-seat Range Rover, but that 3rd row looks tiny.

Shiiiiit, even Dodge and Ford will produce north of 600hp with 8 and 6 cylinders. Dodge has done it for a few years in their Hellcats and Ford had it a few years ago in a Shelby and GT. BMW is just late to the party.

The 7-series and X7 are supposed to use the Rolls-Royce Ghost engine which has a lot of low end torque. The Hellcat and Z06 and Ford GT aren't making 650 lb-ft at 1800 rpm or whatever the Rolls makes it at and they aren't going to run as smooth or quiet.

The BMW plans are rumor and speculation I think. Mercedes has said they are committed to the V12 and are increasing the horsepower on it. The Mercedes V12 is not going away.

The 7-series and X7 are supposed to use the Rolls-Royce Ghost engine which has a lot of low end torque. The Hellcat and Z06 and Ford GT aren't making 650 lb-ft at 1800 rpm or whatever the Rolls makes it at and they aren't going to run as smooth or quiet.

The BMW plans are rumor and speculation I think. Mercedes has said they are committed to the V12 and are increasing the horsepower on it. The Mercedes V12 is not going away.

Maybe it should be pointed out that these V12s will account for such a small percentage of overall sales of those models, that it barely merits a mention. The bulk will be the smaller V8s and V6s that everyone else is using.

V12 is a small percentage to be sure. Mercedes moved their V12 production to a different factory so they could increase production, as they have increasing demand for the V12.

V8s are getting rare even. I wouldn't be surprised to see full size pick ups with 4-cylinder engines in the 2020s with the bulk being V6. CAFE will force V8s down to 5-10% of the market in the 2020s.

V12 is a small percentage to be sure. Mercedes moved their V12 production to a different factory so they could increase production, as they have increasing demand for the V12.

V8s are getting rare even. I wouldn't be surprised to see full size pick ups with 4-cylinder engines in the 2020s with the bulk being V6. CAFE will force V8s down to 5-10% of the market in the 2020s.

You do realize that if CAFE is going to affect the Domestics like that, it will do the same to MB right? Focusing on V12s is just silly based o that one fact alone. 

V12 is a small percentage to be sure. Mercedes moved their V12 production to a different factory so they could increase production, as they have increasing demand for the V12.

V8s are getting rare even. I wouldn't be surprised to see full size pick ups with 4-cylinder engines in the 2020s with the bulk being V6. CAFE will force V8s down to 5-10% of the market in the 2020s.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a Turbo-4 in a truck before then.  A Turbo 2.5 or 2.9 liter 4-cylinder would move a Silverado along just fine.  The 2.0T can make 295 lb-ft of torque, a 2.5T would make 368 lb-ft and a 2.9 would make 427 lb-ft.... just extrapolating from the 2.0T, and it would make it over a broad RPM range.  They'd probably have to build it with some sort of dual spool small turbo/large turbo setup to prevent lag.... but it's completely doable. 

And Escalade without a V8 sounds like a frightening nightmare.

I think the better strategy would be to make the Escalade even more exclusive, as almost a concept caricature of a vehicle like an American ultra-luxury paradigm of the past.

So there would be the El Miraj as the range topping model of the CT8/9...

Yes, names for the ulta-expensive $150K plus vehicles, and the rest of the range with the CT and XT names.

Would it be okay to limit the next unit-body platform to the XT7... and then make the Escalade like how the Bentley Bentayga is the ultra-luxury version of the Audi Q7.

Or how MB Maybach will use the GLS as the basis of their future SUV.

Well the engines in all vehicles will grow smaller and smaller. We will see more hybrid systems of all nature too.

What is notable is many in the industry and even retired are now saying they can see a day when the ICE may be limited in the future in many models.

I just read a interview with Fred Simmons past Pontiac guy off all nature including their last Motorsports manager and he made this statement in the story. That was really telling to me. Most of them say that the 54 MPG in 2025 is not going to be met and most companies will pull out the stops to find MPG anyway they can.

I do not think many of us here really can conceive just how far the changes may range in the next 20 years.

The problem with hitting the CAFE targets is customers don't want sedans anymore.  Crossovers are outselling sedans.  Sedan, coupe, and convertible are only like 35% of sales anymore, plus gas is cheap.  So the old theory of sell 300,000 Cavaliers or Escorts to offset gas guzzler tucks and SUVs won't work.  Automakers are going to have to make these crossovers and trucks hit the CAFE targets.

But when you look at how GM cut about 10% of the weight from the Malibu, if they can cut 10% on Tahoe and Escalade that is 550 lbs.  Then you get to the point where the Tahoe/Yukon are V6, Escalade could be V8 to be more special.  But post 2020, they may have to push the Escalade to Omega to get weight down enough, Tahoe and Suburban could be endangered species heading toward 2025. 

The problem with hitting the CAFE targets is customers don't want sedans anymore.  Crossovers are outselling sedans.  Sedan, coupe, and convertible are only like 35% of sales anymore, plus gas is cheap.  So the old theory of sell 300,000 Cavaliers or Escorts to offset gas guzzler tucks and SUVs won't work.  Automakers are going to have to make these crossovers and trucks hit the CAFE targets.

 

But when you look at how GM cut about 10% of the weight from the Malibu, if they can cut 10% on Tahoe and Escalade that is 550 lbs.  Then you get to the point where the Tahoe/Yukon are V6, Escalade could be V8 to be more special.  But post 2020, they may have to push the Escalade to Omega to get weight down enough, Tahoe and Suburban could be endangered species heading toward 2025. 

SMK...I like that thought process.

I dont know how accurate it might be in the real world about customers not buying sedans anymore and buying CUVs and SUVs therefore 300 000 Cavaliers sold to offset the SUV gas guzzling does not apply...but its a very logical thought process that has a lot of truth to it.

Maybe GM SHOULD try to get mega weight down from ALL of their trucks and SUVs/CUVs with technology akin to the Malibu and CT6 (like you stated) because gosh darn it...(like you said)...the trends for SUVs/CUVs is only rising...

Maybe Ford AINT that dumb to have invested in alumunium and ecoboost V6s in their bread and butter F-150.

The problem with hitting the CAFE targets is customers don't want sedans anymore.  Crossovers are outselling sedans.  Sedan, coupe, and convertible are only like 35% of sales anymore, plus gas is cheap.  So the old theory of sell 300,000 Cavaliers or Escorts to offset gas guzzler tucks and SUVs won't work.  Automakers are going to have to make these crossovers and trucks hit the CAFE targets.

 

But when you look at how GM cut about 10% of the weight from the Malibu, if they can cut 10% on Tahoe and Escalade that is 550 lbs.  Then you get to the point where the Tahoe/Yukon are V6, Escalade could be V8 to be more special.  But post 2020, they may have to push the Escalade to Omega to get weight down enough, Tahoe and Suburban could be endangered species heading toward 2025.

That is why Trax's, Encores, Lighter Nox and Terrains are on the way. Also hybrid systems that at one point will no longer be optional but standard.

Weight cuts are coming every where and smaller engines will be the trend. You can only cut so many cylinders. We already know that.

The problem with hitting the CAFE targets is customers don't want sedans anymore.  Crossovers are outselling sedans.  Sedan, coupe, and convertible are only like 35% of sales anymore, plus gas is cheap.  So the old theory of sell 300,000 Cavaliers or Escorts to offset gas guzzler tucks and SUVs won't work.  Automakers are going to have to make these crossovers and trucks hit the CAFE targets.

 

But when you look at how GM cut about 10% of the weight from the Malibu, if they can cut 10% on Tahoe and Escalade that is 550 lbs.  Then you get to the point where the Tahoe/Yukon are V6, Escalade could be V8 to be more special.  But post 2020, they may have to push the Escalade to Omega to get weight down enough, Tahoe and Suburban could be endangered species heading toward 2025. 

That only helps you down the road if they do that, given your constant criticism of them not using V8s in some of their models.

The problem with hitting the CAFE targets is customers don't want sedans anymore.  Crossovers are outselling sedans.  Sedan, coupe, and convertible are only like 35% of sales anymore...

Crossovers are NOT outselling sedans.

Market penetration by vehicle type for 2014 :

SUV and CUV : 36.5%

sedan : 35.4%

coupe : 3.4

hatchback : 5.5%

wagon : 1.2%

convertible : 1%

SMK's analysis : "No one wants sedans anymore". Another hole in one, Arnold!!

As usual, media has overhyped the numbers in desperation to sound 'hip' with the 'new trends'.

Further, cars (IE sedans, coupes, convs, hatches & wagons) are 46.5%. CUVs are probably around 25%.

- - - - - 

Rounding out the breakdown, pickups are 13.1% of the market.

I criticize base 4 cylinder and no V8 in the CT6.  A big Cadillac should be a special car, really a mid-range Cadillac should be a special car.   The Lacrosse has a V6, you could put a turbo 4 in there, base V6 in the CT6, and the LaCrosse has higher sales volume, thus bigger CAFE impact.  You could put a 2.0T in a Traverse, and V6 in the Acadia and Enclave to make them premium over the Chevy.  Etc, etc.  My main problem with GM is they are putting V6s standard in Chevys and Buicks, then turbo 4's in Cadillacs.  That doesn't make sense.

I think you could even make a V6 standard in an Omega platform Escalade, but I think you have to offer a V8 option still.  Corvette and big Cadillacs will still have to offer a V8, even in 2025.  Probably any car above $30-40k will have some electrification help to it.  But on an $80,000 Cadillac you can do a V8 with some batteries or capacitors and an electric motor, and you don't need a 6 liter V8, maybe it is 3.5 liter V8 in the future.  We have 1.5 liter 4-cylinders, why not a 3.0 liter V8.

 

The problem with hitting the CAFE targets is customers don't want sedans anymore.  Crossovers are outselling sedans.  Sedan, coupe, and convertible are only like 35% of sales anymore...

 

Crossovers are NOT outselling sedans.

 

Market penetration by vehicle type for 2014 :

 

SUV and CUV : 36.5%

sedan : 35.4%

coupe : 3.4

hatchback : 5.5%

wagon : 1.2%

convertible : 1%

 

 

SMK's analysis : "No one wants sedans anymore". Another hole in one, Arnold!!

As usual, media has overhyped the numbers in desperation to sound 'hip' with the 'new trends'.

Further, cars (IE sedans, coupes, convs, hatches & wagons) are 46.5%. CUVs are probably around 25%.

 

- - - - - 

Rounding out the breakdown, pickups are 13.1% of the market.

 

But roll that forward to 2020.  Sedans, coupes and convertibles are on the decline.  Personally I don't like SUVs or CUVs, I wish cars sold better.  But Toyota thinks the Rav4 may overtake the Camry in sales in the net 5-10 years, The Escape outsells the Fusion, the Honda Fit is basically dead because the HR-V replaced it.  Cadillac plans on offer 3 more crossovers, Buick and Chevy want more, etc, etc.    There are rumors that the Taurus and Impala will both die after this generation since the Fusion and Malibu have grown in size and large sedan sales are declining.  Car markers are adding CUVs and removing cars from their line ups. 

Over the 6 model years from 2009 to 2014, sedans have lost 0.9% of the marketshare. If you want to call that "declining", I guess that's your perogative.

SUVs and CUVs together have gained 5.1% over the same years. Some colossal tidal shift.

As far as 2020 goes, who knows?? Last summer everyone was projecting $5/gal gas in the U.S.. Only time will show if any major shifts will occur.